luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Rams, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Saints 27–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:08 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 15 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 9
Los Angeles Rams 27

September 15, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: Rams −2

Luck index +21 Rams about even · −21 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 NO 27 LA 13
  2. 2 NO 30 LA 27
  3. 3 NO 17 LA 19
  4. 4 NO 24 LA 28
  5. 5 NO 10 LA 17
  6. 6 NO 20 LA 30
  7. 7 NO 17 LA 31
  8. 8 NO 20 LA 37
  9. 9 NO 17 LA 38
  10. 10 NO 27 LA 57

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 21% of them, Rams 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+2.4%
Saints by 9–166.0%
Saints by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.0%
Rams by 1–825.7%
Rams by 9–1621.2%
Rams by 17+30.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Saints: the final margin was Rams by 18, without the luck Rams by 20.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • W. Lutz, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 11 for 87 yards, Rams 8 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (David Onyemata), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.8 pts
Q1 10:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Rams, 5 yards +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q1 5:05 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +2% NO +1.1 pts
Q1 2:18 Illegal Contact on the Rams (John Johnson), 5 yards +2% NO +0.2 pts
Q1 1:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LA +1.8 pts
Q1 1:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Saints (Jared Cook), 10 yards +3% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 13:08 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q2 7:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Eli Apple), 8 yards +2% LA +1.1 pts
Q2 6:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NO +3.4 pts
Q2 4:49 Face Mask on the Rams (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 15 yards +4% NO +1.3 pts
Q3 14:02 False Start on the Saints (Michael Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q3 8:34 False Start on the Rams (Robert Woods), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 8:34 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.4 pts
Q3 6:06 Illegal Contact on the Saints (Eli Apple), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q3 0:15 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LA +2.2 pts
Q4 12:25 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +4% LA +1.4 pts
Q4 10:18 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% NO +2.1 pts
Q4 8:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards 0% LA +1.4 pts
Q4 5:58 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Teddy Bridgewater), 10 yards 0% LA +0.9 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% NO NO: Turnover
2 Q1 11:40 The Rams converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +13% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q1 1:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% LA LA: Punt
4 Q2 12:46 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
5 Q2 11:15 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% LA NO: Field goal
6 Q2 6:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NO NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 6:08 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NO LA: Field goal
8 Q2 2:47 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% LA NO: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 18
Luck in points
2.9 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 20.9
Replay with same day's form
Saints 21% · Rams 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Saints · Rams

More from Week 2 2019