Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Broncos, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?
The Bears stole one. They beat the Broncos 16–14, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 36 points of win probability to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): the Bears converted 4th & 15, worth 36 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 16 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +90 Bears very lucky · −90 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Broncos win 9.
- 1 CHI 13 DEN 7
- 2 CHI 17 DEN 20
- 3 CHI 17 DEN 22
- 4 CHI 22 DEN 30
- 5 CHI 7 DEN 17
- 6 CHI 10 DEN 23
- 7 CHI 0 DEN 16
- 8 CHI 0 DEN 20
- 9 CHI 14 DEN 37
- 10 CHI 7 DEN 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.12 | worse by 0.10 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.04 | worse by 0.08 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.07 | better by 0.04 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.17 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 10% of them, Broncos 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 25.9% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 42.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 43 yds made · 84% expected
- E. Pineiro, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- E. Pineiro, 52 yds made · 70% expected
- B. McManus, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- E. Pineiro, 53 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Bears 7 for 65 yards, Broncos 10 for 81 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:05 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Akiem Hicks), 15 yards | +5% DEN +1.8 pts |
| Q1 6:03 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Derek Wolfe), 5 yards | +3% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:30 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +4% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:36 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Prince Amukamara), 9 yards | +1% DEN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:42 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +6% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 10 yards | +5% DEN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:57 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Derek Wolfe), 5 yards | +3% CHI +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:51 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +3% DEN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 11:59 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +4% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:39 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 1 yard | +4% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 14:01 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +8% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:56 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Eddie Goldman), 15 yards | +10% DEN +1.8 pts |
| Q4 7:00 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +1% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:31 | Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards | +19% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 0:31 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% DEN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:31 | Defensive Offside on the Bears (Buster Skrine), 1 yard · pre-snap | +9% CHI +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:09 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DEN +0.1 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:43 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +8% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 14:01 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 13:56 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Eddie Goldman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 35 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 | +10% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 4:51 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +28% CHI | DEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 2:25 | The Broncos converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:02 | The Broncos converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +9% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:09 | The Bears converted 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedOffensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +36% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:01 | E. Pineiro made 53-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +33% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Todd Davis (DEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 30% · Broncos 70%
- Final margin
- Bears by 2
- Luck in points
- 6.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 4.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 10% · Broncos 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · 
Bears · 
Broncos
More from Week 2 2019
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 20–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Cardinals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Lions DET 13–10 · replay 28% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 43–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 · replay 55% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 27–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons ATL 24–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner