Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Eagles at Falcons, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Eagles 24–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Eagles: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:20 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 3, worth 45 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 20 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Falcons about even · −12 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Falcons win 9.
- 1 PHI 20 ATL 14
- 2 PHI 6 ATL 9
- 3 PHI 13 ATL 17
- 4 PHI 13 ATL 20
- 5 PHI 20 ATL 30
- 6 PHI 20 ATL 33
- 7 PHI 7 ATL 23
- 8 PHI 7 ATL 27
- 9 PHI 16 ATL 41
- 10 PHI 17 ATL 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Eagles
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.15 | worse by 0.16 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.12 | worse by 0.07 |
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.13 | better by 0.06 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.16 | better by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 12% of them, Falcons 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 23.0% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 45.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Bryant, 50 yds made · 70% expected
- J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Bryant, 50 yds missed · 71% expected
- J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Eagles 7 for 60 yards, Falcons 10 for 58 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:00 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 5 yards | +3% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:54 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:13 | False Start on the Falcons, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI 0.0 pts |
| Q1 3:49 | False Start on the Falcons (Russell Gage), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:45 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PHI +1.8 pts |
| Q2 7:42 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 10 yards | +2% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:38 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:46 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:28 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Kendall Sheffield), 5 yards | +2% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Blidi Wreh-Wilson), 5 yards | +1% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:08 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +1% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 11:30 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +4% ATL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 10:04 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Justin Hardy), 9 yards | +2% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:52 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 4 yards | +1% PHI +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:13 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% ATL +1.9 pts |
| Q4 2:48 | Encroachment on the Eagles (Hassan Ridgeway), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ATL +0.5 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:27 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +10% ATL | ATL: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 5:04 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +12% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 5:03 | The Eagles converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +11% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 5:59 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +19% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 2:20 | The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +45% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:29 | The Eagles converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +36% PHI | PHI: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 0:42 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% ATL | PHI: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:38 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +34% ATL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 15% · Falcons 85%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 12% · Falcons 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · 
Eagles · 
Falcons
More from Week 2 2019
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 20–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Cardinals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Lions DET 13–10 · replay 28% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 43–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 · replay 55% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Broncos CHI 16–14 · replay 10% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 27–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner