Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Patriots at Dolphins, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?
The Patriots beat the Dolphins 43–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Before kickoff the Patriots were 91% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:32 left): S. Gostkowski missed 48-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Final
 New England Patriots | 43 |
|---|---|
 Miami Dolphins | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Patriots about even · −2 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Patriots win 10, Dolphins win 0.
- 1 NE 49 MIA 10
- 2 NE 37 MIA 6
- 3 NE 32 MIA 6
- 4 NE 23 MIA 0
- 5 NE 37 MIA 17
- 6 NE 24 MIA 7
- 7 NE 31 MIA 17
- 8 NE 19 MIA 7
- 9 NE 23 MIA 16
- 10 NE 34 MIA 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Patriots win 98% of them, Dolphins 2%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 43.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Patriots by 17+ | 79.7% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 13.2% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Dolphins by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- S. Gostkowski, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Patriots 5 for 54 yards, Dolphins 4 for 22 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:33 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 3 yards | +3% NE +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:32 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | +1% NE +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:51 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MIA +2.2 pts |
| Q3 2:26 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 4 yards | +1% NE +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:26 | False Start on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 5 yards | 0% NE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:34 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Ryan Izzo), 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIA +3.3 pts |
| Q4 13:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Patriots (Matthew Slater), 15 yards | +1% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:20 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Patriots (Devin McCourty), 15 yards | 0% MIA +1.8 pts |
Patriots penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Dolphins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:50 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +4% NE | MIA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:33 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 79 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +3% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:50 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% NE | MIA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:32 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedS. Gostkowski missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +11% MIA | NE: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 7:42 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% NE | MIA: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 6:38 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +8% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 12:35 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +2% NE | MIA: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 11:37 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +2% NE | NE: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.6 pts
- Marcus Cannon (NE T), out · 0.7 pts
- David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Patriots 100% · Dolphins 0%
- Final margin
- Patriots by 43
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Patriots by 52.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Patriots 98% · Dolphins 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · 
Patriots · 
Dolphins
More from Week 2 2019
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 20–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Cardinals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Lions DET 13–10 · replay 28% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 · replay 55% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Broncos CHI 16–14 · replay 10% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 27–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons ATL 24–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner