Week 2 2019 · September 12, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 20–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Panthers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:28 left): the Panthers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 31 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Buccaneers about even · −23 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Panthers win 2.
- 1 TB 38 CAR 7
- 2 TB 30 CAR 6
- 3 TB 36 CAR 17
- 4 TB 30 CAR 14
- 5 TB 30 CAR 17
- 6 TB 16 CAR 6
- 7 TB 27 CAR 21
- 8 TB 9 CAR 6
- 9 TB 20 CAR 24
- 10 TB 9 CAR 25
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.15 | worse by 0.11 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.14 | better by 0.31 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.15 | worse by 0.32 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.14 | better by 0.10 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 77% of them, Panthers 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 33.4% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 22.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 12.5% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Slye, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Slye, 37 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Slye, 54 yds made · 66% expected
- J. Slye, 51 yds made · 72% expected
- M. Gay, 42 yds missed · 86% expected
- M. Gay, 32 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Buccaneers 12 for 66 yards, Panthers 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:11 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +1.1 pts |
| Q1 0:06 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards | +3% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:50 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:47 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:32 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:13 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:32 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (O.J. Howard), 10 yards | +4% CAR +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:41 | False Start on the Buccaneers (O.J. Howard), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:31 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ross Cockrell), 10 yards | +1% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:35 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 15 yards | +9% TB +1.7 pts |
| Q3 3:52 | Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +20% CAR +3.9 pts |
| Q4 13:55 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Curtis Samuel), 10 yards | +7% TB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:30 | Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:10 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:50 | Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 11 yards | +12% CAR +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:28 | Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 1 yard · pre-snap | +2% CAR +1.1 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:40 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +13% TB | CAR: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:03 | J. Slye made 54-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +9% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 3:52 | Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 71 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +20% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 0:02 | M. Gay missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +11% CAR | TB: Safety |
| 5 | Q4 11:45 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +10% TB | CAR: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:16 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +9% CAR | TB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:50 | Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 71 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +12% CAR | CAR: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:28 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedDelay of Game on the Buccaneers, 1 yardPre-snap flags | +30% TB | CAR: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Graham Gano (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 93% · Panthers 7%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 6
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 11.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 77% · Panthers 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Panthers
More from Week 2 2019
- Cardinals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Lions DET 13–10 · replay 28% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 43–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 · replay 55% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Broncos CHI 16–14 · replay 10% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 27–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons ATL 24–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner