luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 16, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Jets, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Jets 23–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:03 left): Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 23
New York Jets 3

September 16, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6.5

Luck index +2 Browns about even · −2 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 CLE 49 NYJ 10
  2. 2 CLE 31 NYJ 0
  3. 3 CLE 31 NYJ 5
  4. 4 CLE 23 NYJ 0
  5. 5 CLE 26 NYJ 6
  6. 6 CLE 23 NYJ 6
  7. 7 CLE 22 NYJ 7
  8. 8 CLE 24 NYJ 12
  9. 9 CLE 17 NYJ 9
  10. 10 CLE 13 NYJ 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 98% of them, Jets 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+76.9%
Browns by 9–1614.9%
Browns by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jets by 1–81.3%
Jets by 9–160.3%
Jets by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.7 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 20, without the luck Browns by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Seibert, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • S. Ficken, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • A. Seibert, 43 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 9 for 85 yards, Jets 12 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:58 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Jamal Adams), 15 yards +6% CLE +2.5 pts
Q1 5:30 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns (Chad Thomas), 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q1 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 8 yards +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 1:23 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 15 yards +5% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q1 1:03 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% CLE +3.9 pts
Q2 14:16 Delay of Game on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q2 10:28 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Nate Hairston), 5 yards +4% CLE +2.0 pts
Q2 10:16 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Eric Murray), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 8:20 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.3 pts
Q2 7:58 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 15 yards +6% NYJ +2.3 pts
Q2 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +2% CLE +1.1 pts
Q2 0:49 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.1 pts
Q2 0:28 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Jets (Bronson Kaufusi), 12 yards +2% CLE +1.1 pts
Q3 11:01 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 7:44 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q4 11:01 Illegal Shift on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q4 7:34 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts
Q4 4:26 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Jamal Adams), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q4 4:22 Encroachment on the Jets (Jamal Adams), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 0:10 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Browns (Mack Wilson), 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.8 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:49 The Browns converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q1 7:58 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Jamal Adams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 70 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +6% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q1 6:19 A. Seibert made 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +6% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q1 1:03 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:58 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 59 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
6 Q2 2:07 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q2 0:20 The Browns converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +6% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q3 3:49 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% CLE NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Quincy Enunwa (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by l.falk · 0.3 pts
  • Damarious Randall (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 91% · Jets 9%

Final margin
Browns by 20
Luck in points
9.7 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 98% · Jets 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Browns · Jets

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