luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · September 12, 2019–September 16

Week 2 2019: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Broncos 16–14 in a game they win 10% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 2 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Buccaneers 20–14 @ Panthers 32% 77% Deserved
Seahawks 28–26 @ Steelers 38% 55% Coin flip
Colts 19–17 @ Titans 41% 80% Deserved
Lions 13–10 vs Chargers 47% 28% Lucky
Falcons 24–20 vs Eagles 47% 88% Deserved
49ers 41–17 @ Bengals 47% 99% Deserved

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 16–14 @ Broncos 10% +90
2 Lions W 13–10 vs Chargers 28% +72
3 Bills W 28–14 @ Giants 55% +45
4 Seahawks W 28–26 @ Steelers 55% +45
5 Packers W 21–16 vs Vikings 60% +40
6 Buccaneers W 20–14 @ Panthers 77% +23
7 Rams W 27–9 vs Saints 79% +21
8 Colts W 19–17 @ Titans 80% +20
9 Texans W 13–12 vs Jaguars 86% +14
10 Chiefs W 28–10 @ Raiders 87% +13
11 Falcons W 24–20 vs Eagles 88% +12
12 Ravens W 23–17 vs Cardinals 95% +5
13 Cowboys W 31–21 @ Washington 98% +2
14 Browns W 23–3 @ Jets 98% +2
15 Patriots W 43–0 @ Dolphins 98% +2
16 49ers W 41–17 @ Bengals 99% +1
17 Bengals L 17–41 vs 49ers 1% −1
18 Dolphins L 0–43 vs Patriots 2% −2
19 Jets L 3–23 vs Browns 2% −2
20 Washington L 21–31 vs Cowboys 2% −2
21 Cardinals L 17–23 @ Ravens 5% −5
22 Eagles L 20–24 @ Falcons 12% −12
23 Raiders L 10–28 vs Chiefs 13% −13
24 Jaguars L 12–13 @ Texans 14% −14
25 Titans L 17–19 vs Colts 20% −20
26 Saints L 9–27 @ Rams 21% −21
27 Panthers L 14–20 vs Buccaneers 23% −23
28 Vikings L 16–21 @ Packers 40% −40
29 Steelers L 26–28 vs Seahawks 45% −45
30 Giants L 14–28 vs Bills 45% −45
31 Chargers L 10–13 @ Lions 72% −72
32 Broncos L 14–16 vs Bears 90% −90