luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · September 5, 2019–September 9

Week 1 2019: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Vikings beat the Falcons 28–12 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 43–13 @ Browns 34% 87% Deserved
Packers 10–3 @ Bears 40% 77% Deserved
Raiders 24–16 vs Broncos 41% 82% Deserved
Bills 17–16 @ Jets 43% 89% Deserved
49ers 31–17 @ Buccaneers 47% 59% Coin flip

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Vikings W 28–12 vs Falcons 26% +74
2 Seahawks W 21–20 vs Bengals 38% +62
3 Saints W 30–28 vs Texans 53% +47
4 Chargers W 30–24 vs Colts 57% +43
5 49ers W 31–17 @ Buccaneers 59% +41
6 Packers W 10–3 @ Bears 77% +23
7 Cardinals T 27–27 vs Lions 30% +20
8 Eagles W 32–27 vs Washington 81% +19
9 Raiders W 24–16 vs Broncos 82% +18
10 Titans W 43–13 @ Browns 87% +13
11 Bills W 17–16 @ Jets 89% +11
12 Rams W 30–27 @ Panthers 91% +9
13 Chiefs W 40–26 @ Jaguars 91% +9
14 Cowboys W 35–17 vs Giants 92% +8
15 Patriots W 33–3 vs Steelers 93% +7
16 Ravens W 59–10 @ Dolphins 100% 0
17 Dolphins L 10–59 vs Ravens 0% 0
18 Steelers L 3–33 @ Patriots 7% −7
19 Giants L 17–35 @ Cowboys 8% −8
20 Jaguars L 26–40 vs Chiefs 9% −9
21 Panthers L 27–30 vs Rams 9% −9
22 Jets L 16–17 vs Bills 11% −11
23 Browns L 13–43 vs Titans 13% −13
24 Broncos L 16–24 @ Raiders 18% −18
25 Washington L 27–32 @ Eagles 19% −19
26 Lions T 27–27 @ Cardinals 70% −20
27 Bears L 3–10 vs Packers 23% −23
28 Buccaneers L 17–31 vs 49ers 41% −41
29 Colts L 24–30 @ Chargers 43% −43
30 Texans L 28–30 @ Saints 47% −47
31 Bengals L 20–21 @ Seahawks 62% −62
32 Falcons L 12–28 @ Vikings 74% −74