luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Eagles, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat Washington 32–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:15 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 10, worth 25 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Washington Redskins 27
Philadelphia Eagles 32

September 8, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −10.5

Luck index +19 Eagles about even · −19 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 23 PHI 12
  2. 2 WAS 24 PHI 21
  3. 3 WAS 21 PHI 23
  4. 4 WAS 10 PHI 14
  5. 5 WAS 10 PHI 17
  6. 6 WAS 16 PHI 26
  7. 7 WAS 14 PHI 26
  8. 8 WAS 10 PHI 26
  9. 9 WAS 3 PHI 22
  10. 10 WAS 0 PHI 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 19% of them, Eagles 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+1.4%
Washington by 9–165.0%
Washington by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Eagles by 1–827.5%
Eagles by 9–1621.2%
Eagles by 17+30.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 5, without the luck Eagles by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Elliott, 22 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 12 for 96 yards, Eagles 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (DeSean Jackson), 15 yards +3% WAS +1.4 pts
Q1 8:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on Washington (Tanner Vallejo), 10 yards +3% PHI +0.9 pts
Q1 5:50 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% PHI +1.5 pts
Q1 0:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 8:02 Offensive Holding on Washington (Trey Quinn), 7 yards +3% PHI +1.2 pts
Q2 2:41 Offensive Holding on Washington (Cole Holcomb), 9 yards +4% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 0:42 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 0:04 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 7:14 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 14:12 Chop Block on Washington, 15 yards +2% PHI +1.4 pts
Q4 13:05 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 9:16 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +2% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 5:55 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (JJ Arcega-Whiteside), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% WAS +1.7 pts
Q4 2:48 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PHI +2.0 pts
Q4 2:03 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +1% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 0:17 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 0:06 Offside on Free Kick on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.5 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:08 Washington converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +16% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:32 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 4:40 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
4 Q2 4:27 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:54 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 5:15 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +25% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:15 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:28 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Reed (WAS TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 37% · Eagles 63%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
3.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Washington 19% · Eagles 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Washington · Eagles

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