Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bills at Jets, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Jets 17–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:07 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 4, worth 27 points of win probability to the Bills.
Final
 Buffalo Bills | 17 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Bills about even · −11 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bills win 9, Jets win 1.
- 1 BUF 38 NYJ 6
- 2 BUF 31 NYJ 7
- 3 BUF 26 NYJ 7
- 4 BUF 29 NYJ 13
- 5 BUF 23 NYJ 10
- 6 BUF 24 NYJ 13
- 7 BUF 30 NYJ 22
- 8 BUF 18 NYJ 13
- 9 BUF 16 NYJ 14
- 10 BUF 17 NYJ 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jets
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.05 | better by 0.16 |
| Bills defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.09 | better by 0.19 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.07 | worse by 0.16 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.13 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bills win 89% of them, Jets 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bills by 17+ | 45.0% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 23.6% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 18.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Jets by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Vedvik, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
- S. Hauschka, 43 yds made · 83% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Bills 7 for 55 yards, Jets 8 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:05 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Darryl Roberts), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:09 | Face Mask on the Jets (Trumaine Johnson), 15 yards | +4% BUF +1.8 pts |
| Q1 7:32 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:34 | Taunting on the Bills, 15 yards | +3% NYJ +1.4 pts |
| Q1 6:12 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 2 yards | +1% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:29 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets, 10 yards | +2% BUF +1.2 pts |
| Q1 0:49 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Darryl Roberts), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% BUF +3.9 pts |
| Q2 6:07 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bills, 5 yards | +2% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Jerry Hughes), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:09 | Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 15 yards | +2% NYJ +1.8 pts |
| Q3 7:39 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Quincy Enunwa), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% BUF +2.9 pts |
| Q3 7:01 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Leonard Williams), 5 yards | +1% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:24 | Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Henry Anderson), 15 yards | +2% BUF +2.2 pts |
| Q4 3:13 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:36 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Jerry Hughes), 5 yards | +1% NYJ +0.3 pts |
Bills penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:11 | The Bills fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% NYJ | BUF: Opp touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:42 | Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams | +17% NYJ | NYJ: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:49 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Darryl Roberts), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +11% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 3:55 | The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% NYJ | BUF: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 3:07 | The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +27% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:00 | The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +10% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:17 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +25% BUF | NYJ: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | The Jets fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% BUF | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bills 9% · Jets 91%
- Final margin
- Bills by 1
- Luck in points
- 12.2 for the Bills
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 11.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bills 89% · Jets 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · 
Bills · 
Jets
More from Week 1 2019
- Packers at Bears GB 10–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings MIN 28–12 · replay 26% for the winner
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars KC 40–26 · replay 91% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers LA 30–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Browns TEN 43–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 32–27 · replay 81% for the winner
- Bengals at Seahawks SEA 21–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colts at Chargers LAC 30–24 · replay 57% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals ARI 27–27 · replay 30% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 31–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 33–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Saints NO 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders OAK 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner