luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 9, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Raiders, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 24–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 59% favorites.

Final

Denver Broncos 16
Oakland Raiders 24

September 9, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Broncos −3

Luck index +18 Raiders about even · −18 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 2, Raiders win 8.

  1. 1 DEN 27 OAK 14
  2. 2 DEN 12 OAK 9
  3. 3 DEN 17 OAK 20
  4. 4 DEN 17 OAK 21
  5. 5 DEN 10 OAK 17
  6. 6 DEN 14 OAK 24
  7. 7 DEN 7 OAK 20
  8. 8 DEN 12 OAK 28
  9. 9 DEN 7 OAK 27
  10. 10 DEN 17 OAK 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 18% of them, Raiders 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+1.2%
Broncos by 9–164.4%
Broncos by 1–810.2%
Level after regulation2.9%
Raiders by 1–830.3%
Raiders by 9–1623.1%
Raiders by 17+28.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Raiders by 8, without the luck Raiders by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 64 yds missed · 45% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 6 for 44 yards, Raiders 9 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:03 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DEN +0.7 pts
Q1 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% DEN +1.2 pts
Q1 2:29 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 10 yards +3% OAK +0.9 pts
Q2 14:27 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Johnathan Abram), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% DEN +1.6 pts
Q2 14:04 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +5% OAK +1.5 pts
Q2 13:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Tahir Whitehead), 5 yards +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 12:05 False Start on the Raiders, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.6 pts
Q2 12:05 False Start on the Raiders, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OAK +0.4 pts
Q2 0:37 Illegal Formation on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% OAK +0.7 pts
Q2 0:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Gareon Conley), 15 yards +2% DEN +1.3 pts
Q2 0:16 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% OAK +1.5 pts
Q3 5:13 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Raiders (Johnathan Abram), 14 yards +3% DEN +1.7 pts
Q3 1:24 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 4 yards +1% OAK +0.4 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:40 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 14:27 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Johnathan Abram), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +5% DEN DEN: Punt
3 Q2 14:04 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% OAK OAK: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:26 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% OAK OAK: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:14 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% OAK OAK: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:32 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% OAK DEN: Field goal
7 Q3 3:49 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% OAK DEN: Field goal
8 Q3 0:04 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% OAK DEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gabe Jackson (OAK G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Todd Davis (DEN LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 7% · Raiders 93%

Final margin
Raiders by 8
Luck in points
0.2 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 18% · Raiders 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Broncos · Raiders

More from Week 1 2019