Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Falcons at Vikings, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Falcons 28–12, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.
The Vikings won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:59 left): Blocked punt by the Vikings, worth 11 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 12 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Vikings very lucky · −74 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Vikings win 3.
- 1 ATL 35 MIN 7
- 2 ATL 30 MIN 10
- 3 ATL 24 MIN 10
- 4 ATL 24 MIN 13
- 5 ATL 24 MIN 17
- 6 ATL 24 MIN 20
- 7 ATL 21 MIN 19
- 8 ATL 14 MIN 17
- 9 ATL 17 MIN 25
- 10 ATL 13 MIN 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Vikings won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.14 | worse by 0.22 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.33 | +0.16 | worse by 0.17 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.33 | +0.09 | better by 0.23 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.06 | better by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 74% of them, Vikings 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 24.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 25.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Falcons 9 for 78 yards, Vikings 11 for 100 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:53 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kyle Rudolph), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ATL +2.3 pts |
| Q1 10:23 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q1 7:03 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q1 3:16 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons, 10 yards | +1% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:44 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Anthony Barr), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 8:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 15 yards | +1% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:28 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (De'Vondre Campbell), 5 yards | +2% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q2 4:40 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Russell Gage), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN 0.0 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MIN +1.7 pts |
| Q3 8:11 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Shamar Stephen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:55 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Trae Waynes), 26 yards | +2% ATL +3.2 pts |
| Q3 1:15 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Falcons (Ricardo Allen), 15 yards | 0% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 0:53 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Falcons (Keanu Neal), 8 yards | 0% MIN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:39 | Kick Catch Interference on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 15 yards | 0% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:39 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:28 | False Start on the Falcons (Calvin Ridley), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 9 yards | 0% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:29 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Stephen Weatherly), 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ATL +2.0 pts |
| Q4 1:05 | Illegal Touch Kick on the Falcons, 5 yards | 0% MIN +0.5 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:59 | Blocked punt by the VikingsSpecial teams | +11% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:53 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kyle Rudolph), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +5% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 13:52 | The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:26 | The Falcons fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MIN | ATL: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:00 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:28 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (De'Vondre Campbell), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet | +2% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% MIN | MIN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 1% · Vikings 99%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 16
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 15.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 74% · Vikings 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · 
Falcons · 
Vikings
More from Week 1 2019
- Packers at Bears GB 10–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 17–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars KC 40–26 · replay 91% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers LA 30–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Browns TEN 43–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 32–27 · replay 81% for the winner
- Bengals at Seahawks SEA 21–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colts at Chargers LAC 30–24 · replay 57% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals ARI 27–27 · replay 30% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 31–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots NE 33–3 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Saints NO 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders OAK 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner