luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 9, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Saints, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Texans 30–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 45 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:02 left): W. Lutz made 58-yard field goal, worth 45 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Houston Texans 28
New Orleans Saints 30

September 9, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −6.5

Luck index +47 Saints lucky · −47 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 5, Saints win 5.

  1. 1 HOU 28 NO 6
  2. 2 HOU 31 NO 16
  3. 3 HOU 40 NO 31
  4. 4 HOU 30 NO 24
  5. 5 HOU 23 NO 21
  6. 6 HOU 13 NO 16
  7. 7 HOU 6 NO 12
  8. 8 HOU 19 NO 29
  9. 9 HOU 20 NO 33
  10. 10 HOU 17 NO 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 47% of them, Saints 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+11.0%
Texans by 9–1613.0%
Texans by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation4.8%
Saints by 1–823.1%
Saints by 9–1615.0%
Saints by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 2, without the luck Texans by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 56 yds missed · 65% expected
  • W. Lutz, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • W. Lutz, 58 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 8 for 69 yards, Saints 7 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:00 False Start on the Texans (Darren Fells), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.6 pts
Q1 12:50 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Saints, 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 1:39 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +7% NO +1.6 pts
Q2 3:44 Defensive Holding on the Saints (P.J. Williams), 5 yards +4% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 3:01 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 10 yards +4% NO +1.5 pts
Q2 2:36 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 8:40 Defensive Offside on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% HOU +4.1 pts
Q3 2:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Angelo Blackson), 15 yards +7% NO +1.4 pts
Q3 1:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (DeAndre Hopkins), 15 yards +1% NO +1.4 pts
Q4 11:03 Illegal Substitution on the Texans (Taiwan Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO 0.0 pts
Q4 10:47 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q4 7:11 False Start on the Texans (Duke Johnson), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 3:38 Invalid Fair Catch Signal on the Saints (Deonte Harty), 5 yards +4% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 0:37 Roughing the Kicker on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 8 yards 0% HOU 0.0 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:19 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +14% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:26 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:40 Defensive Offside on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:07 The Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:11 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on the Texans (Duke Johnson), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +9% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q4 4:25 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% NO HOU: Punt
7 Q4 2:05 The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +10% NO NO: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 The game turned hereW. Lutz made 58-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +45% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Keke Coutee (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 59% · Saints 41%

Final margin
Saints by 2
Luck in points
3.6 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Texans 47% · Saints 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Texans · Saints

More from Week 1 2019