Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Rams at Steelers, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Rams 17–12, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q1, 2:53 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 19 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Steelers. The biggest single swing (Q2, 1:56 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 12 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +78 Steelers very lucky · −78 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 8, Steelers win 2.
- 1 LA 37 PIT 7
- 2 LA 41 PIT 19
- 3 LA 24 PIT 7
- 4 LA 23 PIT 10
- 5 LA 19 PIT 9
- 6 LA 29 PIT 22
- 7 LA 21 PIT 17
- 8 LA 26 PIT 24
- 9 LA 23 PIT 26
- 10 LA 7 PIT 22
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 78% of them, Steelers 22%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 33.4% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 12.1% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 6.5% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 56 yds missed · 59% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Rams 10 for 95 yards, Steelers 13 for 107 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 15 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:21 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +4% LA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 19 yards, wiping out the play | +21% PIT +6.6 pts |
| Q2 14:33 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Vince Williams), 15 yards | +5% LA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:44 | Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:22 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 20 yards | +3% LA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:09 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Artie Burns), 10 yards | +3% LA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:09 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.2 pts |
| Q2 4:48 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +5% PIT +1.0 pts |
| Q2 2:15 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% PIT +2.7 pts |
| Q3 11:31 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 11 yards | +3% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:50 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Nick Vannett), 10 yards | +4% LA +2.0 pts |
| Q3 9:45 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 7:46 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | 0% LA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:13 | Illegal Shift on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:36 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 3 yards | +2% LA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:20 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +5% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:49 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | Illegal Touch Kick on the Steelers (Artie Burns), 5 yards | +3% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers, 4 yards | +7% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% PIT +0.3 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:53 | The Steelers fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams | +34% LA | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:39 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:53 | The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 19 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 326 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +21% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:56 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams | +50% PIT | LA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 8:55 | The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:14 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:30 | The Rams were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +16% PIT | LA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:01 | The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% LA | LA: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- James Conner (PIT RB), out · 0.3 pts
- Ramon Foster (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
- Brandin Cooks (LA WR), out · 1.1 pts
- John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 75% · Steelers 25%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 5
- Luck in points
- 11.0 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 6.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 78% · Steelers 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · 
Rams · 
Steelers
More from Week 10 2019
- Chargers at Raiders OAK 26–24 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Buccaneers TB 30–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints ATL 26–9 · replay 47% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 49–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bills at Browns CLE 19–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 20–13 · replay 14% for the winner
- Chiefs at Titans TEN 35–32 · replay 36% for the winner
- Giants at Jets NYJ 34–27 · replay 77% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts MIA 16–12 · replay 8% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers GB 24–16 · replay 87% for the winner
- Vikings at Cowboys MIN 28–24 · replay 44% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 27–24 · replay 44% for the winner