luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Jets, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Giants 34–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Giants: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:23 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 57 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Giants 27
New York Jets 34

November 10, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +23 Jets about even · −23 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Jets win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 23 NYJ 10
  2. 2 NYG 13 NYJ 10
  3. 3 NYG 27 NYJ 29
  4. 4 NYG 12 NYJ 17
  5. 5 NYG 17 NYJ 24
  6. 6 NYG 19 NYJ 30
  7. 7 NYG 14 NYJ 28
  8. 8 NYG 13 NYJ 30
  9. 9 NYG 17 NYJ 39
  10. 10 NYG 0 NYJ 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Giants

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.

31 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.10 worse by 0.03
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.03 +0.17 better by 0.14
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.03 +0.02 better by 0.00
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.15 better by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 23% of them, Jets 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+2.9%
Giants by 9–167.1%
Giants by 1–812.1%
Level after regulation2.2%
Jets by 1–824.3%
Jets by 9–1621.6%
Jets by 17+29.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Giants: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 12.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 54 yds missed · 63% expected
  • S. Ficken, 53 yds made · 63% expected
  • S. Ficken, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 62 yards, Jets 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:18 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Markus Golden), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q2 14:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Nate Hairston), 15 yards +4% NYG +2.3 pts
Q2 13:33 Defensive Offside on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.4 pts
Q2 12:45 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 11:17 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 5 yards +4% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q2 7:24 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Nate Hairston), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYG +1.2 pts
Q2 5:24 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 9 yards, wiping out the play +14% NYG +3.4 pts
Q3 11:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Golden Tate), 10 yards +1% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q3 7:16 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 33 yards +14% NYJ +2.6 pts
Q4 3:33 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 0:29 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.1 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:29 The Jets converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:33 The Giants converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +16% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 2:00 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +13% NYJ NYG: Punt
5 Q3 14:23 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +57% NYJ NYG: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:01 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +20% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:26 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +13% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 589 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +14% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trumaine Johnson (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Kalil (NYJ C), out · 0.6 pts
  • C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Neville Hewitt (NYJ LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Mike Remmers (NYG T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jon Halapio (NYG C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 6% · Jets 94%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
5.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 23% · Jets 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Giants · Jets

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