Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Bears, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?
The Bears stole one. They beat the Lions 20–13, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:57 left): the Lions converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to the Lions.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 13 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +86 Bears very lucky · −86 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 9, Bears win 1.
- 1 DET 44 CHI 13
- 2 DET 30 CHI 7
- 3 DET 29 CHI 10
- 4 DET 33 CHI 17
- 5 DET 33 CHI 19
- 6 DET 27 CHI 16
- 7 DET 20 CHI 12
- 8 DET 19 CHI 13
- 9 DET 20 CHI 17
- 10 DET 27 CHI 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
56 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.12 | worse by 0.23 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.13 | better by 0.09 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.09 | worse by 0.06 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.05 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 86% of them, Bears 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 43.3% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 22.8% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 8.9% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Bears by 17+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Prater, 54 yds made · 62% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Lions 8 for 76 yards, Bears 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:36 | Defensive Holding on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 5 yards | 0% DET +0.3 pts |
| Q1 5:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 15 yards | +6% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q1 3:45 | Illegal Shift on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% CHI +2.0 pts |
| Q2 11:54 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions (Marvin Jones), 10 yards | +3% CHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:44 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CHI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:08 | Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:32 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Trey Flowers), 4 yards | 0% CHI +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:36 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Darius Slay), 22 yards | +7% CHI +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:22 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 7 yards | +1% DET +1.4 pts |
| Q3 4:34 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CHI +3.1 pts |
| Q4 9:49 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears, 10 yards | 0% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:05 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +2% DET +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:10 | Defensive Holding on the Bears (Prince Amukamara), 5 yards | +7% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Kenny Golladay), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CHI +2.2 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:57 | The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +13% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 14:52 | The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:36 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Darius Slay), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 352 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +7% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:05 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +9% CHI | DET: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 9:44 | The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +8% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:25 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Kenny Golladay), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 467 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +7% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:18 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% CHI | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyle Long (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by j.driskel · 6.3 pts
- Romeo Okwara (DET DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Tracy Walker (DET FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 19% · Bears 81%
- Final margin
- Bears by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.5 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 86% · Bears 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · 
Lions · 
Bears
More from Week 10 2019
- Chargers at Raiders OAK 26–24 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Buccaneers TB 30–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints ATL 26–9 · replay 47% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 49–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bills at Browns CLE 19–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Chiefs at Titans TEN 35–32 · replay 36% for the winner
- Giants at Jets NYJ 34–27 · replay 77% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts MIA 16–12 · replay 8% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers GB 24–16 · replay 87% for the winner
- Rams at Steelers PIT 17–12 · replay 22% for the winner
- Vikings at Cowboys MIN 28–24 · replay 44% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 27–24 · replay 44% for the winner