luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Saints, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Saints 26–9, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 32 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Saints were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:36 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 26
New Orleans Saints 9

November 10, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −14

Luck index +53 Falcons lucky · −53 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Saints win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 41 NO 19
  2. 2 ATL 34 NO 20
  3. 3 ATL 31 NO 23
  4. 4 ATL 11 NO 7
  5. 5 ATL 21 NO 19
  6. 6 ATL 20 NO 23
  7. 7 ATL 10 NO 16
  8. 8 ATL 7 NO 17
  9. 9 ATL 13 NO 27
  10. 10 ATL 10 NO 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 47% of them, Saints 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+8.8%
Falcons by 9–1614.2%
Falcons by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation6.3%
Saints by 1–823.4%
Saints by 9–1614.8%
Saints by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.9 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 17, without the luck Falcons by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • W. Lutz, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 7 for 48 yards, Saints 12 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (David Onyemata), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.3 pts
Q1 11:08 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q1 10:52 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 14:19 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Marcus Davenport), 5 yards +3% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 13:15 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 12:00 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards +4% ATL +1.3 pts
Q2 10:18 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 8:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Julio Jones), 10 yards +3% NO +1.4 pts
Q2 1:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Blidi Wreh-Wilson), 8 yards +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q2 0:56 Face Mask on the Saints (Michael Thomas), 15 yards +4% ATL +1.2 pts
Q2 0:15 Tripping on the Saints, 10 yards +5% ATL +1.4 pts
Q3 12:23 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 9:59 False Start on the Falcons (Calvin Ridley), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 9:35 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.2 pts
Q3 4:18 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 5 yards +6% ATL +1.3 pts
Q4 14:08 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% ATL +2.4 pts
Q4 9:07 Roughing the Kicker on the Saints, 15 yards +3% ATL +4.1 pts
Q4 5:27 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Olamide Zaccheaus), 10 yards 0% NO +1.3 pts
Q4 0:02 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.1 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:57 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% ATL NO: Field goal
2 Q1 3:27 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:36 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:41 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% ATL NO: Punt
5 Q3 8:48 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q3 1:13 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:08 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% ATL ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 50% · Saints 50%

Final margin
Falcons by 17
Luck in points
15.9 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 47% · Saints 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Falcons · Saints

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