luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 7, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Raiders, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chargers 26–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:30 left): Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 27 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 24
Oakland Raiders 26

November 7, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +59 Raiders lucky · −59 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 LAC 33 OAK 9
  2. 2 LAC 33 OAK 15
  3. 3 LAC 36 OAK 24
  4. 4 LAC 21 OAK 13
  5. 5 LAC 31 OAK 26
  6. 6 LAC 12 OAK 10
  7. 7 LAC 13 OAK 16
  8. 8 LAC 27 OAK 34
  9. 9 LAC 21 OAK 34
  10. 10 LAC 13 OAK 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 59% of them, Raiders 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+14.9%
Chargers by 9–1615.9%
Chargers by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Raiders by 1–819.4%
Raiders by 9–1612.9%
Raiders by 17+7.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Raiders by 2, without the luck Raiders by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 53 yds missed · 63% expected
  • M. Badgley, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 8 for 70 yards, Raiders 12 for 97 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 17 yards, wiping out the play +19% LAC +6.7 pts
Q1 9:52 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +3% LAC +1.4 pts
Q1 2:45 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% LAC +1.1 pts
Q1 1:48 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Rayshawn Jenkins), 10 yards +3% OAK +0.9 pts
Q2 13:16 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.2 pts
Q2 11:49 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.3 pts
Q2 8:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 11 yards +2% LAC +1.0 pts
Q2 4:24 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +16% LAC +3.4 pts
Q2 3:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% OAK +0.7 pts
Q2 0:20 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OAK +0.1 pts
Q3 14:18 Face Mask on the Chargers (Desmond King), 15 yards +5% OAK +1.9 pts
Q3 11:33 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Uchenna Nwosu), 9 yards +1% OAK +0.8 pts
Q3 5:55 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards 0% OAK +0.8 pts
Q3 1:25 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 6 yards · pre-snap +6% OAK +0.7 pts
Q4 12:25 False Start on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.2 pts
Q4 11:22 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Kyle Wilber), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% OAK +0.5 pts
Q4 9:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Daryl Worley), 12 yards +9% LAC +1.9 pts
Q4 8:30 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +27% OAK +3.8 pts
Q4 7:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 8 yards +4% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 0:48 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 5 yards +13% LAC +1.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 17 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 240 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +19% LAC LAC: Turnover
2 Q1 6:14 Return touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +22% OAK OAK: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 4:24 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 424 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +16% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:30 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +27% OAK OAK: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:06 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +15% OAK OAK: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:48 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 240 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +13% LAC LAC: Turnover
7 Q4 0:30 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% OAK LAC: Turnover
8 Q4 0:27 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% OAK –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Tevi (LAC T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Roderic Teamer (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dontrelle Inman (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sean Culkin (LAC TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 11% · Raiders 89%

Final margin
Raiders by 2
Luck in points
6.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 59% · Raiders 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Chargers · Raiders

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