luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Cowboys, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Cowboys 28–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 40 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
Dallas Cowboys 24

November 10, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +56 Vikings lucky · −56 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 41 DAL 23
  2. 2 MIN 20 DAL 10
  3. 3 MIN 34 DAL 28
  4. 4 MIN 38 DAL 35
  5. 5 MIN 13 DAL 16
  6. 6 MIN 16 DAL 20
  7. 7 MIN 19 DAL 26
  8. 8 MIN 23 DAL 34
  9. 9 MIN 6 DAL 20
  10. 10 MIN 3 DAL 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 44% of them, Cowboys 56%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+7.5%
Vikings by 9–1612.4%
Vikings by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation6.3%
Cowboys by 1–824.0%
Cowboys by 9–1615.1%
Cowboys by 17+11.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 4, without the luck Vikings by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 57 yds missed · 63% expected
  • D. Bailey, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Bailey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 35 yards, Cowboys 5 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:52 False Start on the Vikings (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 10:38 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 10 yards +4% MIN +1.3 pts
Q1 4:01 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Robert Quinn), 14 yards +2% MIN +1.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 11:47 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 5 yards +3% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 9:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards +4% DAL +1.8 pts
Q3 2:09 False Start on the Vikings (Irv Smith Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 12:31 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% DAL +3.2 pts
Q4 8:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.8 pts
Q4 6:23 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DAL +0.7 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:41 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q3 0:48 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% DAL MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:06 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +15% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:31 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 607 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 1:06 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +17% MIN DAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:44 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +40% MIN DAL: Turnover
8 Q4 0:03 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +15% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trae Waynes (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Linval Joseph (MIN NT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 59% · Cowboys 41%

Final margin
Vikings by 4
Luck in points
1.8 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 44% · Cowboys 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Vikings · Cowboys

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