luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Packers, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Panthers 24–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:56 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
Green Bay Packers 24

November 10, 2019 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5

Luck index +13 Packers about even · −13 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 27 GB 21
  2. 2 CAR 35 GB 38
  3. 3 CAR 19 GB 23
  4. 4 CAR 10 GB 17
  5. 5 CAR 10 GB 19
  6. 6 CAR 13 GB 24
  7. 7 CAR 7 GB 21
  8. 8 CAR 13 GB 30
  9. 9 CAR 0 GB 21
  10. 10 CAR 17 GB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 13% of them, Packers 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.9%
Panthers by 9–162.8%
Panthers by 1–88.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Packers by 1–820.0%
Packers by 9–1625.8%
Packers by 17+40.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Packers by 8, without the luck Packers by 10. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • M. Crosby, 47 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 5 for 46 yards, Packers 10 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:11 False Start on the Packers (Jimmy Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +1.0 pts
Q1 7:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 20 yards +4% GB +1.3 pts
Q2 14:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 10 yards +8% CAR +2.2 pts
Q2 10:35 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 0 yards +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q2 5:15 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 10 yards +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 4:21 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 15 yards +6% GB +1.8 pts
Q2 0:19 False Start on the Packers (Jamaal Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 0:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 6 yards +4% GB +0.4 pts
Q3 14:15 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 9 yards, wiping out the play +7% CAR +2.2 pts
Q3 2:21 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% CAR +1.5 pts
Q3 1:31 Illegal Formation on the Panthers (Dontari Poe), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.9 pts
Q4 3:28 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.5 pts
Q4 2:32 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q4 0:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 3 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 0:13 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Preston Smith), 2 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +1.6 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:11 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q2 15:00 J. Slye made 50-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 8 of 13 from 45+ before +8% CAR CAR: Turnover
3 Q2 14:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 257 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% CAR CAR: Turnover
4 Q2 12:46 The Panthers fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB CAR: Punt
5 Q2 6:00 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% GB CAR: Punt
6 Q2 2:53 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% GB GB: End of half
7 Q3 14:15 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 0:56 The Panthers converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% CAR CAR: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Bradberry (CAR CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 2% · Packers 98%

Final margin
Packers by 8
Luck in points
2.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 13% · Packers 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Panthers · Packers

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