luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 11, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at 49ers, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the 49ers 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 8:12 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 16, worth 37 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final (OT)

Seattle Seahawks 27
San Francisco 49ers 24

November 11, 2019 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6.5

Luck index +56 Seahawks lucky · −56 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, 49ers win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 40 SF 16
  2. 2 SEA 28 SF 13
  3. 3 SEA 35 SF 27
  4. 4 SEA 12 SF 9
  5. 5 SEA 33 SF 35
  6. 6 SEA 25 SF 30
  7. 7 SEA 27 SF 36
  8. 8 SEA 20 SF 32
  9. 9 SEA 17 SF 34
  10. 10 SEA 14 SF 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 44% of them, 49ers 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+11.3%
Seahawks by 9–1613.5%
Seahawks by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation3.0%
49ers by 1–822.4%
49ers by 9–1616.6%
49ers by 17+16.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the 49ers: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Myers, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds missed · 78% expected
  • J. Myers, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 9 for 75 yards, 49ers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:58 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q1 12:27 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% SF +5.1 pts
Q1 11:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 5 yards +6% SF +1.0 pts
Q1 5:48 Encroachment on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.5 pts
Q1 3:03 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 13:38 Kick Catch Interference on the 49ers (Raheem Mostert), 15 yards +2% SEA +1.5 pts
Q2 12:20 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.7 pts
Q2 2:05 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q3 12:01 Horse Collar Tackle on the Seahawks (Mychal Kendricks), 15 yards +3% SF +0.8 pts
Q3 7:22 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Raheem Mostert), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% SF +0.7 pts
Q3 4:37 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Seahawks (Quinton Jefferson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% SF +1.7 pts
Q3 4:14 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Kendrick Bourne), 10 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 10:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks, 15 yards +6% SF +1.4 pts
Q4 1:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Ezekiel Ansah), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SF +0.1 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:27 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 223 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +15% SF SF: Field goal
2 Q2 2:57 The 49ers fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +23% SEA SF: Punt
3 Q4 3:12 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +15% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 QOT 9:31 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% SEA SEA: Turnover
5 QOT 8:12 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +37% SEA SEA: Turnover
6 QOT 4:52 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +16% SF SF: Missed field goal
7 QOT 1:16 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +28% SEA SEA: Field goal
8 QOT 0:04 J. Myers made 42-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +15% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (SF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Skule (SF T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robbie Gould (SF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jaron Brown (SEA WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 69% · 49ers 31%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
0.8 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 44% · 49ers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Seahawks · 49ers

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