luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 37–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 10
Dallas Cowboys 37

October 20, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3

Luck index +3 Cowboys about even · −3 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 PHI 20 DAL 23
  2. 2 PHI 16 DAL 21
  3. 3 PHI 17 DAL 26
  4. 4 PHI 10 DAL 21
  5. 5 PHI 24 DAL 38
  6. 6 PHI 24 DAL 41
  7. 7 PHI 13 DAL 34
  8. 8 PHI 16 DAL 41
  9. 9 PHI 10 DAL 39
  10. 10 PHI 2 DAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 3% of them, Cowboys 97%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+0.1%
Eagles by 9–160.5%
Eagles by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cowboys by 1–86.9%
Cowboys by 9–1618.1%
Cowboys by 17+72.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 27, without the luck Cowboys by 21.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 63 yds made · 55% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Maher, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 5 for 40 yards, Cowboys 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:08 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Kamu Grugier-Hill), 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts
Q1 7:21 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yards +3% PHI +2.3 pts
Q1 6:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Xavier Woods), 15 yards 0% PHI +1.2 pts
Q2 9:30 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% PHI +4.1 pts
Q2 2:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles (Malcolm Jenkins), 5 yards +2% DAL +1.4 pts
Q3 11:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Rudy Ford), 10 yards +1% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 9:23 False Start on the Eagles (Miles Sanders), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:15 Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DAL +1.7 pts
Q3 3:45 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +1.5 pts
Q3 1:32 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards 0% PHI +0.7 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:18 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DAL PHI: Turnover
2 Q1 10:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:23 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DAL PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:21 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 370 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +3% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:55 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% DAL DAL: Punt
6 Q2 11:51 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% PHI DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 11:15 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:30 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% PHI PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nigel Bradham (PHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 27
Luck in points
5.8 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 21.2
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 3% · Cowboys 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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