luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Colts, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts stole one. They beat the Texans 30–23, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

The Colts won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:34 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 14, worth 28 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 23
Indianapolis Colts 30

October 20, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +88 Colts very lucky · −88 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 HOU 40 IND 6
  2. 2 HOU 46 IND 20
  3. 3 HOU 37 IND 16
  4. 4 HOU 34 IND 17
  5. 5 HOU 38 IND 24
  6. 6 HOU 33 IND 23
  7. 7 HOU 41 IND 33
  8. 8 HOU 26 IND 21
  9. 9 HOU 35 IND 33
  10. 10 HOU 31 IND 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Colts won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.

46 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Texans offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.14 worse by 0.05
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.29 +0.11 worse by 0.19
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.29 +0.16 better by 0.13
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.14 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 88% of them, Colts 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+47.2%
Texans by 9–1622.8%
Texans by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation1.7%
Colts by 1–87.1%
Colts by 9–163.0%
Colts by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 7, without the luck Colts by 3.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 10 for 54 yards, Colts 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:59 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% IND +1.4 pts
Q1 10:51 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +1.1 pts
Q1 1:00 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Johnathan Joseph), 5 yards +1% IND +0.9 pts
Q1 0:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 11:09 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q2 10:09 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q2 8:55 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 10 yards +2% HOU +1.5 pts
Q2 5:40 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 7:54 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 10 yards +2% HOU +1.2 pts
Q3 6:45 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Keion Crossen), 5 yards +6% IND +2.2 pts
Q3 2:48 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +1% HOU +1.3 pts
Q3 1:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Benardrick McKinney), 6 yards +1% IND +1.1 pts
Q3 1:30 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 3 yards +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q4 12:22 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 4:19 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q4 1:19 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.6 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:42 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:10 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% HOU IND: Turnover
3 Q2 7:34 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +28% HOU IND: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:47 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +12% IND HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 0:27 K. Fairbairn made 26-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:45 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Keion Crossen), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:15 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:46 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 11% · Colts 89%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
3.3 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 88% · Colts 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Texans · Colts

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