Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Packers, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Raiders 42–24, but the Raiders played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Packers.
The Packers won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 14:26 left): Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Oakland Raiders | 24 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Packers very lucky · −62 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 6, Packers win 4.
- 1 OAK 44 GB 17
- 2 OAK 44 GB 27
- 3 OAK 45 GB 33
- 4 OAK 29 GB 20
- 5 OAK 44 GB 38
- 6 OAK 34 GB 31
- 7 OAK 33 GB 35
- 8 OAK 22 GB 27
- 9 OAK 25 GB 35
- 10 OAK 24 GB 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Packers won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.53 | +0.13 | better by 0.39 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.62 | +0.17 | worse by 0.45 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.62 | +0.12 | better by 0.50 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.53 | +0.12 | worse by 0.40 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 62% of them, Packers 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 15.5% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 16.9% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 27.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 19.2% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Packers by 17+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Raiders 8 for 97 yards, Packers 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:52 | Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:42 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trevor Davis), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% GB +2.7 pts |
| Q1 3:28 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% OAK +1.3 pts |
| Q1 2:03 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% GB +2.2 pts |
| Q2 14:26 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% GB +5.0 pts |
| Q2 9:26 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jake Kumerow), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% OAK +2.7 pts |
| Q2 4:33 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% OAK +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:14 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 22 yards | +5% GB +2.5 pts |
| Q2 3:27 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 15 yards | +5% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:09 | Roughing the Passer on the Raiders, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% OAK +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:39 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 10 yards | +1% GB +0.9 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:20 | The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +12% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:42 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Trevor Davis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 168 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +8% GB | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:03 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:13 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +14% OAK | OAK: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:26 | The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 11:38 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +8% OAK | OAK: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 9:26 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jake Kumerow), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 160 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 | +8% OAK | OAK: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 8:04 | The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% GB | GB: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tyrell Williams (OAK WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Trent Brown (OAK T), out · 0.5 pts
- Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 23% · Packers 77%
- Final margin
- Packers by 18
- Luck in points
- 10.4 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 7.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 62% · Packers 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · 
Raiders · 
Packers
More from Week 7 2019
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 30–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Cardinals at Giants ARI 27–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Texans at Colts IND 30–23 · replay 12% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals JAX 27–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Rams at Falcons LA 37–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 31–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions MIN 42–30 · replay 84% for the winner
- 49ers at Washington SF 9–0 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans TEN 23–20 · replay 20% for the winner
- Ravens at Seahawks BAL 30–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Saints at Bears NO 36–25 · replay 99% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 37–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 33–0 · replay 97% for the winner