luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 21, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Jets, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 33–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:59 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 10, worth 9 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 33
New York Jets 0

October 21, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −9.5

Luck index +3 Patriots about even · −3 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 NE 37 NYJ 0
  2. 2 NE 44 NYJ 16
  3. 3 NE 34 NYJ 9
  4. 4 NE 37 NYJ 16
  5. 5 NE 21 NYJ 3
  6. 6 NE 35 NYJ 19
  7. 7 NE 23 NYJ 10
  8. 8 NE 23 NYJ 13
  9. 9 NE 13 NYJ 6
  10. 10 NE 20 NYJ 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 97% of them, Jets 3%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+74.3%
Patriots by 9–1615.5%
Patriots by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Jets by 1–82.2%
Jets by 9–160.4%
Jets by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.7 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 33, without the luck Patriots by 22.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Patriots 7 for 92 yards, Jets 8 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:13 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jets, 8 yards +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 12:11 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Julian Edelman), 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 10:48 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 2 yards +1% NE +1.7 pts
Q2 8:35 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 7:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 19 yards +1% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q2 6:23 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Danny Shelton), 15 yards +1% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q2 2:56 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NE +1.7 pts
Q3 7:45 Illegal Bat on the Jets (Sam Darnold), 0 yards 0% NE 0.0 pts
Q3 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Eric Tomlinson), 10 yards 0% NE +1.1 pts
Q3 6:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 20 yards 0% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q3 4:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Trumaine Johnson), 15 yards 0% NE +2.1 pts
Q3 3:58 Intentional Grounding on the Patriots (Tom Brady), 13 yards 0% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 2:55 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NE +2.8 pts
Q4 12:28 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.8 pts
Q4 6:45 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards 0% NE +1.5 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:59 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:14 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:46 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% NYJ NE: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:41 The Patriots converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:15 The Jets fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% NE NYJ: Turnover
7 Q2 9:22 The Patriots converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +3% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:34 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +3% NE NYJ: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kelvin Beachum (NYJ T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Brent Qvale (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kelechi Osemele (NYJ G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Henry Anderson (NYJ DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Herndon (NYJ TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Neville Hewitt (NYJ LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Gordon (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Chung (NE SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 33
Luck in points
10.7 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 22.3
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 97% · Jets 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Patriots · Jets

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