luckadjusted

2019 NFL season · October 31, 2019–November 4

Week 9 2019: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Colts 26–24 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 9 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Chiefs 26–23 vs Vikings 34% 53% Coin flip
Broncos 24–19 vs Browns 38% 65% Deserved
Chargers 26–11 vs Packers 38% 87% Deserved
Dolphins 26–18 vs Jets 40% 80% Deserved
Ravens 37–20 vs Patriots 41% 91% Deserved
Texans 26–3 @ Jaguars 47% 85% Deserved

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 26–24 vs Colts 25% +75
2 Raiders W 31–24 vs Lions 40% +60
3 Panthers W 30–20 vs Titans 45% +55
4 Chiefs W 26–23 vs Vikings 53% +47
5 49ers W 28–25 @ Cardinals 58% +42
6 Broncos W 24–19 vs Browns 65% +35
7 Bills W 24–9 vs Washington 65% +35
8 Dolphins W 26–18 vs Jets 80% +20
9 Seahawks W 40–34 vs Buccaneers 80% +20
10 Texans W 26–3 @ Jaguars 85% +15
11 Chargers W 26–11 vs Packers 87% +13
12 Eagles W 22–14 vs Bears 90% +10
13 Ravens W 37–20 vs Patriots 91% +9
14 Cowboys W 37–18 @ Giants 96% +4
15 Giants L 18–37 vs Cowboys 4% −4
16 Patriots L 20–37 @ Ravens 9% −9
17 Bears L 14–22 @ Eagles 10% −10
18 Packers L 11–26 @ Chargers 13% −13
19 Jaguars L 3–26 vs Texans 15% −15
20 Jets L 18–26 @ Dolphins 20% −20
21 Buccaneers L 34–40 @ Seahawks 20% −20
22 Washington L 9–24 @ Bills 35% −35
23 Browns L 19–24 @ Broncos 35% −35
24 Cardinals L 25–28 vs 49ers 42% −42
25 Vikings L 23–26 @ Chiefs 47% −47
26 Titans L 20–30 @ Panthers 55% −55
27 Lions L 24–31 @ Raiders 60% −60
28 Colts L 24–26 @ Steelers 75% −75