Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Packers at Chargers, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Packers 26–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Packers.
An off day for the Packers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 11 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Chargers about even · −13 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 1, Chargers win 9.
- 1 GB 20 LAC 13
- 2 GB 24 LAC 26
- 3 GB 5 LAC 10
- 4 GB 24 LAC 31
- 5 GB 0 LAC 10
- 6 GB 17 LAC 28
- 7 GB 20 LAC 35
- 8 GB 7 LAC 24
- 9 GB 3 LAC 24
- 10 GB 0 LAC 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.28 | +0.14 | worse by 0.42 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.14 | worse by 0.07 |
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.15 | better by 0.06 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.28 | +0.14 | better by 0.42 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 13% of them, Chargers 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 26.5% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 39.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Badgley, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- M. Badgley, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- M. Badgley, 43 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Crosby, 54 yds made · 66% expected
- M. Badgley, 44 yds missed · 83% expected
Penalties: Packers 8 for 45 yards, Chargers 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers (Jatavis Brown), 5 yards | +1% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:11 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:13 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Virgil Green), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:04 | Illegal Shift on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC +1.1 pts |
| Q2 13:49 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:12 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 10 yards | +2% LAC +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:38 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Rayshawn Jenkins), 15 yards | +5% GB +2.1 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +2% GB +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:41 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Packers (Jamaal Williams), 10 yards | +2% LAC +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:39 | Defensive Offside on the Packers, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB 0.0 pts |
| Q4 6:21 | Offside on Free Kick on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.6 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:05 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% GB | LAC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:09 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% LAC | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:13 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Virgil Green), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 228 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 | +5% GB | GB: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 1:09 | M. Badgley made 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +5% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedFalse Start on the Packers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% GB | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 7:24 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Rayshawn Jenkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 522 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 | +5% GB | GB: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:36 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% LAC | GB: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:34 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Roderic Teamer (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Adrian Phillips (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Justin Jones (LAC DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Brandon Mebane (LAC NT), out · 0.2 pts
- Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 0% · Chargers 100%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 15
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 22.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 13% · Chargers 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · 
Packers · 
Chargers
More from Week 9 2019
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 28–25 · replay 58% for the winner
- Texans vs Jaguars HOU 26–3 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bears at Eagles PHI 22–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 26–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Chiefs KC 26–23 · replay 53% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 26–18 · replay 80% for the winner
- Titans at Panthers CAR 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Washington at Bills BUF 24–9 · replay 65% for the winner
- Lions at Raiders OAK 31–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Seahawks SEA 40–34 · replay 80% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 24–19 · replay 65% for the winner
- Patriots at Ravens BAL 37–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 37–18 · replay 96% for the winner