luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 4, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Giants, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 37–18, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:42 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 21 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 37
New York Giants 18

November 4, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 54 NYG 16
  2. 2 DAL 40 NYG 9
  3. 3 DAL 45 NYG 20
  4. 4 DAL 38 NYG 16
  5. 5 DAL 34 NYG 16
  6. 6 DAL 33 NYG 17
  7. 7 DAL 30 NYG 17
  8. 8 DAL 41 NYG 31
  9. 9 DAL 41 NYG 34
  10. 10 DAL 40 NYG 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 96% of them, Giants 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+73.3%
Cowboys by 9–1615.5%
Cowboys by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation0.6%
Giants by 1–82.6%
Giants by 9–160.7%
Giants by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Cowboys by 19, without the luck Cowboys by 20.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Maher, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Maher, 54 yds missed · 62% expected
  • A. Rosas, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 52 yds made · 64% expected
  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Rosas, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Rosas, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 10 for 104 yards, Giants 8 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:26 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.1 pts
Q1 4:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (B.J. Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +1.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 8:03 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q3 12:20 False Start on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 11:06 Chop Block on the Giants (Elijhaa Penny), 15 yards +5% DAL +1.5 pts
Q3 10:20 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NYG +2.4 pts
Q3 3:07 Taunting on the Cowboys (Xavier Woods), 14 yards +9% NYG +1.7 pts
Q3 0:27 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants (Alec Ogletree), 5 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 14:21 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 13:10 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 5 yards +4% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 11:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 15 yards +6% NYG +1.2 pts
Q4 11:50 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys, 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 10:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 26 yards +8% DAL +2.9 pts
Q4 9:46 Illegal Blindside Block on the Cowboys (Randall Cobb), 15 yards +3% NYG +1.5 pts
Q4 7:25 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 5:38 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Randall Cobb), 10 yards 0% NYG +1.0 pts
Q4 2:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 15 yards +1% NYG +1.6 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:39 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% DAL NYG: Punt
2 Q3 11:18 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% DAL NYG: Punt
3 Q3 7:42 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% DAL NYG: Field goal
4 Q3 3:49 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q3 3:07 Taunting on the Cowboys (Xavier Woods), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 11:53 A. Rosas made 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for himUnnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 316 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +9% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q4 10:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 514 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:05 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 19
Luck in points
1.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 20.5
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 96% · Giants 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Cowboys · Giants

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