luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Panthers, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Titans 30–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:47 left): R. Succop missed 43-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Tennessee Titans 20
Carolina Panthers 30

November 3, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −3.5

Luck index +55 Panthers lucky · −55 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 5, Panthers win 5.

  1. 1 TEN 28 CAR 3
  2. 2 TEN 32 CAR 16
  3. 3 TEN 35 CAR 23
  4. 4 TEN 26 CAR 20
  5. 5 TEN 27 CAR 24
  6. 6 TEN 20 CAR 22
  7. 7 TEN 24 CAR 29
  8. 8 TEN 28 CAR 37
  9. 9 TEN 17 CAR 32
  10. 10 TEN 12 CAR 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 55% of them, Panthers 45%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+15.0%
Titans by 9–1615.9%
Titans by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Panthers by 1–820.6%
Panthers by 9–1613.2%
Panthers by 17+9.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.3 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 10, without the luck Titans by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 43 yds missed · 83% expected
  • J. Slye, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Succop, 56 yds missed · 62% expected
  • J. Slye, 49 yds missed · 73% expected
  • R. Succop, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 11 for 99 yards, Panthers 6 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (James Bradberry), 42 yards +10% TEN +3.3 pts
Q1 8:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Kenny Vaccaro), 5 yards, wiping out the play +12% CAR +4.3 pts
Q1 6:49 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CAR +2.5 pts
Q1 6:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 6:26 Face Mask on the Titans, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q1 5:40 Face Mask on the Titans, 13 yards, wiping out the play +5% CAR +2.3 pts
Q2 13:28 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 11:58 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Marquis Haynes), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 9:58 Face Mask on the Titans (Corey Davis), 15 yards +3% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 7:16 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 11:51 False Start on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 7:02 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Kenny Vaccaro), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q3 6:05 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Kamalei Correa), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 5:16 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +3.0 pts
Q4 10:23 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Titans, 15 yards +1% CAR +1.4 pts
Q4 2:04 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Luke Kuechly), 5 yards 0% CAR +0.2 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q1 12:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (James Bradberry), 42 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 549 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +10% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
3 Q1 9:47 R. Succop missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +13% CAR TEN: Punt
4 Q1 8:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Kenny Vaccaro), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 566 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +12% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q1 6:55 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% TEN CAR: Field goal
6 Q1 2:35 The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% CAR CAR: Field goal
7 Q2 14:15 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% TEN CAR: Field goal
8 Q2 8:10 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mario Addison (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (TEN DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Jones (TEN C), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 72% · Panthers 28%

Final margin
Panthers by 10
Luck in points
15.3 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 55% · Panthers 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Titans · Panthers

More from Week 9 2019