luckadjusted

Wild Card 2019 · January 5, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Eagles, Wild Card 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Eagles 17–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:36 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 10, worth 19 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 17
Philadelphia Eagles 9

January 5, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −1

Luck index +31 Seahawks lucky · −31 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 7, Eagles win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 27 PHI 3
  2. 2 SEA 24 PHI 6
  3. 3 SEA 20 PHI 7
  4. 4 SEA 30 PHI 20
  5. 5 SEA 23 PHI 16
  6. 6 SEA 12 PHI 7
  7. 7 SEA 16 PHI 14
  8. 8 SEA 13 PHI 16
  9. 9 SEA 7 PHI 14
  10. 10 SEA 7 PHI 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 69% of them, Eagles 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+20.6%
Seahawks by 9–1622.3%
Seahawks by 1–825.6%
Level after regulation4.2%
Eagles by 1–816.6%
Eagles by 9–167.3%
Eagles by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Seahawks by 8, without the luck Seahawks by 13.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 35 yds blocked · 90% expected
  • J. Myers, 49 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Elliott, 46 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 11 for 114 yards, Eagles 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards +2% SEA +1.4 pts
Q1 8:15 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% PHI +1.1 pts
Q1 3:03 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 11:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% PHI +2.5 pts
Q2 11:04 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +5% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 9:11 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.2 pts
Q2 1:52 Defensive Holding on the Eagles, 5 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 1:14 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards +2% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 1:14 False Start on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 1:06 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.1 pts
Q2 0:45 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.5 pts
Q3 13:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 20 yards +7% PHI +1.7 pts
Q3 12:55 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 6:36 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q3 6:15 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks, 5 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 2:45 False Start on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 7:24 False Start on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 4:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 39 yards +14% PHI +2.9 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:49 J. Myers had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 90% expected for him +9% PHI SEA: Field goal
2 Q1 3:51 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q2 11:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 697 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +8% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 5:20 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q2 2:00 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:36 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +19% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 6:24 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% SEA PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 4:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 39 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1073 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +14% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Duane Brown (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mychal Kendricks (SEA LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 98% · Eagles 2%

Final margin
Seahawks by 8
Luck in points
5.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 13.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 69% · Eagles 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2019 games · Seahawks · Eagles

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