luckadjusted

Wild Card 2019 · January 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Texans, Wild Card 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Bills 22–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 40 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 9:44 left): Illegal Blindside Block on the Bills, 15 yards, worth 17 points of win probability to the Texans. The biggest single swing (QOT, 12:36 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 12.

Final (OT)

Buffalo Bills 19
Houston Texans 22

January 4, 2020 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +43 Texans lucky · −43 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 31 HOU 13
  2. 2 BUF 35 HOU 24
  3. 3 BUF 23 HOU 17
  4. 4 BUF 26 HOU 24
  5. 5 BUF 14 HOU 15
  6. 6 BUF 12 HOU 17
  7. 7 BUF 21 HOU 29
  8. 8 BUF 10 HOU 23
  9. 9 BUF 17 HOU 34
  10. 10 BUF 6 HOU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 43% of them, Texans 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+8.5%
Bills by 9–1613.8%
Bills by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Texans by 1–824.6%
Texans by 9–1616.8%
Texans by 17+14.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Texans by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Hauschka, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 64 yards, Texans 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:09 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q1 5:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills, 10 yards +4% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 8:48 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 6:06 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q2 1:22 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 0:24 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Tyler Kroft), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% HOU +2.1 pts
Q4 7:54 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 5 yards +7% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 2:00 Intentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 14 yards +8% HOU +1.4 pts
QOT 15:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% BUF +0.7 pts
QOT 9:44 Illegal Blindside Block on the Bills, 15 yards +17% HOU +1.6 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 2:00 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bills (Josh Allen), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 988 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 +24% HOU BUF: Turnover on downs
2 Q4 1:41 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 273rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +21% HOU BUF: Field goal
3 Q4 1:21 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +22% BUF HOU: End of game
4 Q4 0:10 S. Hauschka made 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 6 of 11 from 45+ before +22% BUF BUF: Punt
5 QOT 12:36 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +25% BUF BUF: Punt
6 QOT 11:21 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +20% BUF BUF: Punt
7 QOT 9:44 The game turned hereIllegal Blindside Block on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment calls +17% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 QOT 6:56 The Texans converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +22% HOU HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Johnathan Joseph (HOU CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Akins (HOU TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Steven Mitchell (HOU WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Levi Wallace (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 60% · Texans 40%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
1.5 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Bills 43% · Texans 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2019 games · Bills · Texans

More from Wild Card 2019