Bills 19 
Texans 22 Coin flip · Texans win 57% of replays 2019 NFL season · January 4, 2020–January 5
Wild Card 2019: who deserved to win
2 of 4 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Vikings beat the Saints 26–20 in a game they win 35% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Bills 19 Texans 22 Coin flip · Texans win 57% of replays 
Titans lucky 20 
Patriots unlucky 13 Winner outplayed · Titans win 39% of replays 
Vikings lucky 26 
Saints unlucky 20 Winner outplayed · Vikings win 35% of replays 
Seahawks 17 
Eagles 9 Deserved · Seahawks win 69% of replays Wild Card 2019 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 26–20 @ Saints | 29% | 35% | Lucky |
| Titans | 20–13 @ Patriots | 37% | 39% | Lucky |
| Seahawks | 17–9 @ Eagles | 47% | 69% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, wild card
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikings | W 26–20 @ Saints | 35% | +65 |
| 2 | Titans | W 20–13 @ Patriots | 39% | +61 |
| 3 | Texans | W 22–19 vs Bills | 57% | +43 |
| 4 | Seahawks | W 17–9 @ Eagles | 69% | +31 |
| 5 | Eagles | L 9–17 vs Seahawks | 31% | −31 |
| 6 | Bills | L 19–22 @ Texans | 43% | −43 |
| 7 | Patriots | L 13–20 vs Titans | 61% | −61 |
| 8 | Saints | L 20–26 vs Vikings | 65% | −65 |