Vikings 10 
49ers 27 Deserved · 49ers win 96% of replays 2019 NFL season · January 11, 2020–January 12
Divisional round 2019: who deserved to win
1 of 4 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Packers beat the Seahawks 28–23 in a game they win 43% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Vikings 10 49ers 27 Deserved · 49ers win 96% of replays 
Titans 28 
Ravens 12 Coin flip · Titans win 59% of replays 
Texans 31 
Chiefs 51 Deserved · Chiefs win 98% of replays 
Seahawks 23 
Packers 28 Coin flip · Packers win 43% of replays Divisional round 2019 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 28–12 @ Ravens | 23% | 59% | Coin flip |
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Packers | W 28–23 vs Seahawks | 43% | +57 |
| 2 | Titans | W 28–12 @ Ravens | 59% | +41 |
| 3 | 49ers | W 27–10 vs Vikings | 96% | +4 |
| 4 | Chiefs | W 51–31 vs Texans | 98% | +2 |
| 5 | Texans | L 31–51 @ Chiefs | 2% | −2 |
| 6 | Vikings | L 10–27 @ 49ers | 4% | −4 |
| 7 | Ravens | L 12–28 vs Titans | 41% | −41 |
| 8 | Seahawks | L 23–28 @ Packers | 57% | −57 |