luckadjusted

Divisional round 2019 · January 12, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Chiefs, Divisional round 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Texans 51–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:07 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 31
Kansas City Chiefs 51

January 12, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10

Luck index +2 Chiefs about even · −2 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 HOU 28 KC 32
  2. 2 HOU 27 KC 37
  3. 3 HOU 35 KC 48
  4. 4 HOU 31 KC 48
  5. 5 HOU 31 KC 51
  6. 6 HOU 19 KC 42
  7. 7 HOU 17 KC 44
  8. 8 HOU 17 KC 47
  9. 9 HOU 7 KC 44
  10. 10 HOU 19 KC 65

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 2% of them, Chiefs 98%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.1%
Texans by 9–160.3%
Texans by 1–81.4%
Level after regulation0.3%
Chiefs by 1–83.9%
Chiefs by 9–1610.7%
Chiefs by 17+83.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.1 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 20, without the luck Chiefs by 11.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
  • H. Butker, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 7 for 87 yards, Chiefs 4 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:23 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% KC +2.0 pts
Q2 8:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 28 yards +3% KC +1.9 pts
Q2 2:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 15 yards +2% KC +0.3 pts
Q3 11:28 Taunting on the Chiefs (Damien Williams), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.3 pts
Q3 11:18 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% KC +1.5 pts
Q3 7:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.5 pts
Q3 6:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 19 yards +1% KC +1.5 pts
Q3 5:15 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 4:51 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Zach Cunningham), 5 yards +1% KC +2.1 pts
Q4 6:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Tyrann Mathieu), 12 yards 0% HOU +1.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:07 The Texans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +17% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:13 Blocked punt by the TexansSpecial teams +12% HOU HOU: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 10:58 K. Fairbairn made 31-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +5% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 8:05 The Texans fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% KC HOU: Punt
6 Q2 6:37 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:44 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q2 0:50 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Jones (KC DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (KC FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alex Okafor (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Martinas Rankin (KC T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Akins (HOU TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 2% · Chiefs 98%

Final margin
Chiefs by 20
Luck in points
8.1 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 2% · Chiefs 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2019 games · Texans · Chiefs

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