Divisional round 2019 · January 11, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at 49ers, Divisional round 2019: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Vikings 27–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:30 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 2, worth 13 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 10 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 49ers about even · −4 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 0, 49ers win 10.
- 1 MIN 24 SF 27
- 2 MIN 14 SF 20
- 3 MIN 6 SF 15
- 4 MIN 20 SF 31
- 5 MIN 6 SF 20
- 6 MIN 20 SF 37
- 7 MIN 7 SF 27
- 8 MIN 19 SF 43
- 9 MIN 3 SF 30
- 10 MIN 7 SF 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 4% of them, 49ers 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 3.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 68.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Bailey, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- R. Gould, 35 yds made · 91% expected
- R. Gould, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Vikings 1 for 15 yards, 49ers 5 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Ahkello Witherspoon), 8 yards | +1% MIN +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:30 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:03 | False Start on the 49ers (Deebo Samuel), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards | +4% SF +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:56 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 15 yards | +2% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:04 | Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF +1.0 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:56 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% SF | MIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:30 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +13% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:07 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% SF | SF: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:39 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 14:32 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 10:54 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% MIN | SF: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Weston Richburg (SF C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Aviante Collins (MIN T), out · 0.3 pts
- Mackensie Alexander (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 0% · 49ers 100%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 19.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 4% · 49ers 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2019 games · 
Vikings · 
49ers
More from Divisional round 2019
- Titans at Ravens TEN 28–12 · replay 59% for the winner
- Texans at Chiefs KC 51–31 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Packers GB 28–23 · replay 43% for the winner