luckadjusted

Wild Card 2019 · January 5, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Saints, Wild Card 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Saints 26–20, but the Saints played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Saints were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 0:05 left): W. Lutz missed 43-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Vikings. The biggest single swing (Q4, 4:26 left): the Saints fumbled and the Vikings recovered.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 26
New Orleans Saints 20

January 5, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −7.5

Luck index +65 Vikings very lucky · −65 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Saints win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 52 NO 31
  2. 2 MIN 40 NO 29
  3. 3 MIN 20 NO 13
  4. 4 MIN 30 NO 27
  5. 5 MIN 27 NO 30
  6. 6 MIN 34 NO 40
  7. 7 MIN 24 NO 34
  8. 8 MIN 24 NO 37
  9. 9 MIN 16 NO 33
  10. 10 MIN 23 NO 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 35% of them, Saints 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+6.9%
Vikings by 9–1610.0%
Vikings by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Saints by 1–823.1%
Saints by 9–1619.4%
Saints by 17+20.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 6, without the luck Vikings by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Bailey, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Bailey, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Lutz, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • W. Lutz, 49 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 4 for 26 yards, Saints 6 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 5 yards 0% MIN +0.3 pts
Q1 12:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards +1% NO +0.1 pts
Q1 4:05 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Saints, 12 yards +2% MIN +1.1 pts
Q1 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NO +2.1 pts
Q3 10:40 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 6 yards, wiping out the play +6% NO +2.1 pts
Q3 8:48 Illegal Blindside Block on the Saints, 15 yards +6% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 7:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 10 yards +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 2:08 False Start on the Saints (Josh Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 0:59 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 0:21 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +12% MIN +0.7 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Vikings fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NO MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 439 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% NO NO: Punt
3 Q2 0:05 The game turned hereW. Lutz missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +16% MIN NO: Punt
4 Q3 6:15 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:26 The Saints fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% MIN NO: Field goal
6 Q4 0:21 False Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% MIN MIN: End of game
7 Q4 0:07 W. Lutz made 49-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 10 of 13 from 45+ before +10% NO –
8 QOT 13:45 The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eli Apple (NO CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Aviante Collins (MIN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (MIN CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 55% · Saints 45%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
5.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 35% · Saints 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2019 games · Vikings · Saints

More from Wild Card 2019