luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Eagles, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Eagles 17–9, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:10 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 29 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 17
Philadelphia Eagles 9

November 24, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Seahawks −1

Luck index +47 Seahawks lucky · −47 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 38 PHI 13
  2. 2 SEA 30 PHI 13
  3. 3 SEA 41 PHI 31
  4. 4 SEA 26 PHI 20
  5. 5 SEA 19 PHI 17
  6. 6 SEA 19 PHI 21
  7. 7 SEA 27 PHI 33
  8. 8 SEA 21 PHI 31
  9. 9 SEA 10 PHI 26
  10. 10 SEA 7 PHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 53% of them, Eagles 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+14.0%
Seahawks by 9–1614.6%
Seahawks by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation4.9%
Eagles by 1–819.3%
Eagles by 9–1614.1%
Eagles by 17+12.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 8, without the luck Seahawks by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 24 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 12 for 90 yards, Eagles 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.7 pts
Q1 3:03 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 1:58 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 0:35 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 15 yards +3% PHI +2.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Shaquill Griffin), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% PHI +2.9 pts
Q3 14:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tyler Lockett), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +2.3 pts
Q3 11:46 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q3 6:01 False Start on the Seahawks (Jacob Hollister), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 6:01 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 5:11 Tripping on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +1.5 pts
Q3 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% SEA +2.2 pts
Q3 1:18 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks, 10 yards +4% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 13:05 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Jalen Mills), 5 yards +5% SEA +1.9 pts
Q4 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:12 The Eagles fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% SEA PHI: Turnover
2 Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Shaquill Griffin), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 725 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +11% PHI PHI: Turnover
3 Q2 12:13 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q3 14:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tyler Lockett), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 732 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% PHI PHI: Turnover
5 Q3 13:13 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q3 7:16 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% PHI PHI: Turnover
7 Q3 6:10 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +29% SEA PHI: Punt
8 Q3 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jordan Howard (PHI RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (SEA DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaron Brown (SEA WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 89% · Eagles 11%

Final margin
Seahawks by 8
Luck in points
1.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 53% · Eagles 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Seahawks · Eagles

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