luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Bengals, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 16–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:59 left): the Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recovered, worth 14 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Cincinnati Bengals 10

November 24, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +5 Steelers about even · −5 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 10, Bengals win 0.

  1. 1 PIT 43 CIN 9
  2. 2 PIT 35 CIN 7
  3. 3 PIT 29 CIN 7
  4. 4 PIT 28 CIN 10
  5. 5 PIT 22 CIN 6
  6. 6 PIT 30 CIN 17
  7. 7 PIT 17 CIN 7
  8. 8 PIT 22 CIN 15
  9. 9 PIT 24 CIN 20
  10. 10 PIT 14 CIN 12

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 95% of them, Bengals 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+63.3%
Steelers by 9–1621.9%
Steelers by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bengals by 1–83.3%
Bengals by 9–161.1%
Bengals by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Steelers by 6, without the luck Steelers by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 47 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 10 for 77 yards, Bengals 7 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:11 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 4:35 False Start on the Steelers (Jaylen Samuels), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers, 6 yards +3% CIN +1.7 pts
Q2 8:33 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Nick Vannett), 10 yards +3% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 1:55 Illegal Blindside Block on the Steelers, 6 yards +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 1:31 Horse Collar Tackle on the Bengals (Nick Vigil), 15 yards +7% PIT +2.2 pts
Q2 0:56 Intentional Grounding on the Steelers (Mason Rudolph), 11 yards +3% CIN +1.1 pts
Q2 0:51 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Steelers (Justin Layne), 5 yards +2% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:41 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Barron), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.2 pts
Q3 11:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (James Washington), 10 yards +3% CIN +1.2 pts
Q3 7:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 14 yards +4% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 7:45 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% CIN +2.3 pts
Q3 6:35 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +6% PIT +1.5 pts
Q4 13:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (B.W. Webb), 8 yards +8% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 13:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (B.W. Webb), 26 yards +8% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 12:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Carl Lawson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +1.0 pts
Q4 10:30 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PIT +0.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:58 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +11% CIN PIT: Punt
2 Q2 0:56 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Steelers (Mason Rudolph), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 451 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 +9% CIN PIT: Punt
3 Q3 7:45 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 633 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q4 13:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (B.W. Webb), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 490 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q4 13:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (B.W. Webb), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 490 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 12:04 C. Boswell made 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +11% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q4 11:10 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +14% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q4 8:59 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% PIT CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andre Smith (CIN T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 83% · Bengals 17%

Final margin
Steelers by 6
Luck in points
0.4 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 95% · Bengals 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Steelers · Bengals

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