luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Browns, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Dolphins 41–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 79% favorites.

Final

Miami Dolphins 24
Cleveland Browns 41

November 24, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −11

Luck index +6 Browns about even · −6 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Browns win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 30 CLE 24
  2. 2 MIA 17 CLE 20
  3. 3 MIA 13 CLE 19
  4. 4 MIA 14 CLE 24
  5. 5 MIA 16 CLE 30
  6. 6 MIA 21 CLE 37
  7. 7 MIA 9 CLE 29
  8. 8 MIA 10 CLE 33
  9. 9 MIA 17 CLE 44
  10. 10 MIA 6 CLE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 6% of them, Browns 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.3%
Dolphins by 9–160.9%
Dolphins by 1–84.1%
Level after regulation1.1%
Browns by 1–811.0%
Browns by 9–1620.4%
Browns by 17+62.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 17, without the luck Browns by 12.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 36 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Seibert, 46 yds missed · 70% expected
  • A. Seibert, 40 yds made · 82% expected
  • A. Seibert, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 94 yards, Browns 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:12 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Vince Biegel), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.2 pts
Q1 12:10 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards +5% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 11:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 3 yards +4% CLE +1.4 pts
Q1 8:39 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% MIA +0.9 pts
Q1 5:46 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q1 2:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Raekwon McMillan), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 11:09 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIA +2.0 pts
Q2 10:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 20 yards +2% CLE +2.4 pts
Q2 1:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 16 yards 0% CLE +1.3 pts
Q3 3:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Mack Wilson), 15 yards +1% MIA +1.9 pts
Q4 12:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 26 yards +1% CLE +1.6 pts
Q4 11:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 15 yards +1% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 6:01 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.9 pts
Q4 4:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 9 yards, wiping out the play +3% CLE +4.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.8 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:10 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yardsJudgment calls +4% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 11:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 3 yardsJudgment calls +4% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:03 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +3% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:37 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q2 14:15 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% CLE MIA: Turnover
6 Q2 5:53 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% CLE MIA: Field goal
7 Q3 0:10 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bobby McCain (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 4% · Browns 96%

Final margin
Browns by 17
Luck in points
4.7 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 6% · Browns 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Dolphins · Browns

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