luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Bills, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Broncos 20–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:51 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Denver Broncos 3
Buffalo Bills 20

November 24, 2019 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −3.5

Luck index +4 Bills about even · −4 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 DEN 13 BUF 15
  2. 2 DEN 20 BUF 24
  3. 3 DEN 16 BUF 24
  4. 4 DEN 16 BUF 26
  5. 5 DEN 13 BUF 26
  6. 6 DEN 10 BUF 26
  7. 7 DEN 3 BUF 22
  8. 8 DEN 9 BUF 31
  9. 9 DEN 0 BUF 25
  10. 10 DEN 10 BUF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 4% of them, Bills 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.1%
Broncos by 9–160.6%
Broncos by 1–83.2%
Level after regulation0.5%
Bills by 1–89.5%
Bills by 9–1621.0%
Bills by 17+65.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 17, without the luck Bills by 13.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Hauschka, 39 yds made · 85% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 45 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 7 for 70 yards, Bills 12 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards +8% BUF +2.0 pts
Q2 14:10 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills, 7 yards +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q2 9:57 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 8:03 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 7:40 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q2 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 8 yards +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 4:13 Illegal Blindside Block on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 15 yards +2% BUF +1.6 pts
Q2 1:53 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 0:25 Encroachment on the Broncos (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.2 pts
Q2 0:25 False Start on the Bills (Tyler Kroft), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.2 pts
Q2 0:10 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.1 pts
Q2 0:10 False Start on the Bills (Devin Singletary), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.2 pts
Q3 10:39 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.8 pts
Q3 10:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 15 yards +3% DEN +1.8 pts
Q3 6:42 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Isaiah McKenzie), 10 yards +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% DEN +1.0 pts
Q4 13:11 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +1.1 pts
Q4 12:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Isaac Yiadom), 15 yards +1% BUF +1.3 pts
Q4 1:17 Encroachment on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +1.3 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
2 Q1 8:52 The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% BUF BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 5:59 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +6% BUF BUF: Field goal
4 Q2 5:56 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% BUF DEN: Punt
5 Q2 0:10 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedDelay of Game on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Bills (Devin Singletary), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 268 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +5% DEN BUF: End of half
6 Q3 14:17 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:02 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:45 B. McManus made 45-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ before +5% DEN DEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duke Williams (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ty Nsekhe (BUF T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Flacco (DEN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 17
Luck in points
3.9 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 13.1
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 4% · Bills 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Broncos · Bills

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