Week 4 2019 · September 26, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Eagles at Packers, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Packers 34–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Packers.
An off day for the Packers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:08 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 34 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Eagles about even · −16 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Packers win 2.
- 1 PHI 45 GB 13
- 2 PHI 38 GB 13
- 3 PHI 34 GB 16
- 4 PHI 31 GB 17
- 5 PHI 26 GB 16
- 6 PHI 27 GB 20
- 7 PHI 20 GB 16
- 8 PHI 38 GB 36
- 9 PHI 24 GB 27
- 10 PHI 10 GB 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.13 | better by 0.16 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.12 | worse by 0.20 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.09 | better by 0.23 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.12 | worse by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 84% of them, Packers 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 35.9% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 24.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Packers by 17+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Crosby, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Crosby, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Eagles 9 for 93 yards, Packers 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 15 yards | +3% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q1 6:24 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:26 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), 10 yards | +1% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q1 5:20 | Face Mask on the Eagles (Zach Brown), 15 yards | +3% GB +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:20 | Face Mask on the Eagles, 15 yards | +4% GB +1.8 pts |
| Q2 6:42 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 15 yards | +3% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:45 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Illegal Formation on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards | +2% GB +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:17 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Rasul Douglas), 13 yards | +3% GB +1.2 pts |
| Q4 12:05 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Zach Brown), 15 yards | +10% GB +1.9 pts |
| Q4 9:22 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 4 yards | +6% GB +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:25 | Face Mask on the Packers (Dean Lowry), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.9 pts |
| Q4 1:59 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Johnathan Cyprien), 6 yards | +7% GB +1.2 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 2:00 | The Packers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% PHI | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 4:40 | The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 0:32 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 12:05 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Zach Brown), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 147 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 | +10% GB | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 10:52 | The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% GB | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 9:12 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +10% PHI | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 9:08 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +13% PHI | GB: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:59 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Johnathan Cyprien), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 59 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 | +7% GB | GB: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jason Spriggs (GB T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Ronald Darby (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 99% · Packers 1%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 13.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 84% · Packers 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · 
Eagles · 
Packers
More from Week 4 2019
- Panthers at Texans CAR 16–10 · replay 22% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens CLE 40–25 · replay 28% for the winner
- Chiefs at Lions KC 34–30 · replay 82% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 30–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 16–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts OAK 31–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Titans at Falcons TEN 24–10 · replay 27% for the winner
- Washington at Giants NYG 24–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 27–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams TB 55–40 · replay 36% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos JAX 26–24 · replay 15% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears CHI 16–6 · replay 61% for the winner
- Cowboys at Saints NO 12–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 27–3 · replay 78% for the winner