Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Titans at Falcons, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Falcons 24–10, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.
Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 24 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +73 Titans very lucky · −73 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 3, Falcons win 7.
- 1 TEN 22 ATL 7
- 2 TEN 35 ATL 28
- 3 TEN 23 ATL 20
- 4 TEN 13 ATL 15
- 5 TEN 24 ATL 28
- 6 TEN 23 ATL 31
- 7 TEN 10 ATL 21
- 8 TEN 13 ATL 27
- 9 TEN 3 ATL 21
- 10 TEN 24 ATL 50
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 27% of them, Falcons 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 7.7% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 27.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 45 yds made · 82% expected
- M. Bryant, 32 yds missed · 96% expected
- M. Bryant, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Titans 5 for 77 yards, Falcons 7 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Logan Ryan), 32 yards | +5% ATL +2.4 pts |
| Q1 8:18 | False Start on the Titans (Delanie Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:18 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Tyeler Davison), 5 yards | 0% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Tyeler Davison), 5 yards | +5% TEN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:13 | Taunting on the Titans, 15 yards | +3% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Harold Landry), 15 yards | +1% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:18 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Austin Hooper), 10 yards | +1% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:49 | Intentional Grounding on the Titans (Marcus Mariota), 10 yards | +1% ATL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:48 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TEN +2.1 pts |
| Q4 6:27 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Tyeler Davison), 5 yards | 0% TEN +0.9 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Logan Ryan), 32 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +5% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:18 | The Titans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Titans (Delanie Walker), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 106 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 | +7% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Tyeler Davison), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 130 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 | +5% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:32 | The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:21 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 5:57 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% TEN | ATL: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 12:58 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 5:18 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +5% TEN | ATL: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 79% · Falcons 21%
- Final margin
- Titans by 14
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 4.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 27% · Falcons 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · 
Titans · 
Falcons
More from Week 4 2019
- Eagles at Packers PHI 34–27 · replay 84% for the winner
- Panthers at Texans CAR 16–10 · replay 22% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens CLE 40–25 · replay 28% for the winner
- Chiefs at Lions KC 34–30 · replay 82% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 30–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 16–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts OAK 31–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Washington at Giants NYG 24–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 27–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams TB 55–40 · replay 36% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos JAX 26–24 · replay 15% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears CHI 16–6 · replay 61% for the winner
- Cowboys at Saints NO 12–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 27–3 · replay 78% for the winner