luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Washington, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat Washington 41–35, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. Washington had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (QOT, 9:07 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 7, worth 27 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 41
Washington Redskins 35

December 22, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Giants −1

Luck index +16 Giants about even · −16 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Washington win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 52 WAS 20
  2. 2 NYG 38 WAS 15
  3. 3 NYG 48 WAS 30
  4. 4 NYG 38 WAS 23
  5. 5 NYG 17 WAS 6
  6. 6 NYG 41 WAS 33
  7. 7 NYG 31 WAS 27
  8. 8 NYG 22 WAS 21
  9. 9 NYG 17 WAS 20
  10. 10 NYG 21 WAS 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 84% of them, Washington 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+41.7%
Giants by 9–1621.8%
Giants by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Washington by 1–89.5%
Washington by 9–163.8%
Washington by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 6, without the luck Giants by 5.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Giants 4 for 33 yards, Washington 6 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:56 Defensive Holding on Washington, 5 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 5:42 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards +5% NYG +1.8 pts
Q2 1:50 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Shaun Dion Hamilton), 15 yards +4% NYG +2.1 pts
Q2 0:32 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +2.5 pts
Q3 6:32 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAS +0.1 pts
Q3 4:52 False Start on the Giants (Kaden Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 14:55 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 14:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 16 yards +4% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 5:38 False Start on Washington, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.1 pts
Q4 0:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Corey Ballentine), 2 yards +15% WAS +3.7 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:44 Washington converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q4 14:44 Blocked punt by WashingtonSpecial teams +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:10 Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:44 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% NYG WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Corey Ballentine), 2 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 372 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +15% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:10 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +15% NYG NYG: End of game
7 QOT 9:07 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +27% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 QOT 4:19 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Kerrigan (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Paul Richardson (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Quinn (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmy Moreland (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 83% · Washington 17%

Final margin
Giants by 6
Luck in points
0.6 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 84% · Washington 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Giants · Washington

More from Week 16 2019