luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Dolphins, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Bengals 38–35 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): the Bengals’ two-point try was good, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final (OT)

Cincinnati Bengals 35
Miami Dolphins 38

December 22, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −1.5

Luck index +22 Dolphins about even · −22 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Dolphins win 8.

  1. 1 CIN 29 MIA 15
  2. 2 CIN 13 MIA 9
  3. 3 CIN 12 MIA 14
  4. 4 CIN 27 MIA 33
  5. 5 CIN 21 MIA 30
  6. 6 CIN 13 MIA 27
  7. 7 CIN 18 MIA 34
  8. 8 CIN 13 MIA 33
  9. 9 CIN 7 MIA 32
  10. 10 CIN 9 MIA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 22% of them, Dolphins 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+2.8%
Bengals by 9–165.7%
Bengals by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Dolphins by 1–821.7%
Dolphins by 9–1619.8%
Dolphins by 17+36.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Dolphins by 3, without the luck Dolphins by 5.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Bullock, 57 yds made · 52% expected
  • J. Sanders, 47 yds missed · 71% expected
  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 10 for 77 yards, Dolphins 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:50 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q1 3:39 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Mack Hollins), 10 yards +1% CIN +0.8 pts
Q1 0:28 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 6:59 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +2% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 0:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 12 yards +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 0:07 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.2 pts
Q3 11:44 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Nick Vigil), 15 yards +2% MIA +2.6 pts
Q3 8:24 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 7 yards +1% MIA +1.6 pts
Q4 7:01 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 4:18 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Carl Lawson), 15 yards 0% MIA +1.7 pts
Q4 4:04 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Germaine Pratt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 2:09 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 2:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% CIN +5.7 pts
QOT 4:13 False Start on the Bengals (C.J. Uzomah), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MIA +0.6 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:26 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q4 0:00 The Bengals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +22% CIN CIN: Punt
3 QOT 7:56 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +17% CIN MIA: Punt
4 QOT 5:11 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +18% CIN MIA: Punt
5 QOT 4:13 False Start on the Bengals (C.J. Uzomah), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 670 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 QOT 3:29 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% MIA CIN: Punt
7 QOT 3:11 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +17% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 QOT 0:04 J. Sanders made 37-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +12% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Boehm (MIA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bobby McCain (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Raekwon McMillan (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Auden Tate (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Miller (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 28% · Dolphins 72%

Final margin
Dolphins by 3
Luck in points
2.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 22% · Dolphins 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Bengals · Dolphins

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