luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Seahawks 27–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

An off day for the Seahawks: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:20 left): Z. Gonzalez had a 45-yard field goal blocked, worth 11 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Seattle Seahawks 13

December 22, 2019 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −8

Luck index +7 Cardinals about even · −7 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 9, Seahawks win 1.

  1. 1 ARI 46 SEA 10
  2. 2 ARI 41 SEA 14
  3. 3 ARI 39 SEA 17
  4. 4 ARI 29 SEA 10
  5. 5 ARI 26 SEA 10
  6. 6 ARI 30 SEA 17
  7. 7 ARI 29 SEA 20
  8. 8 ARI 16 SEA 10
  9. 9 ARI 26 SEA 23
  10. 10 ARI 30 SEA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Seahawks

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

59 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.05 better by 0.11
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.15 +0.17 better by 0.33
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained −0.15 +0.13 worse by 0.28
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.12 worse by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 93% of them, Seahawks 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+65.5%
Cardinals by 9–1618.3%
Cardinals by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.1%
Seahawks by 1–84.5%
Seahawks by 9–161.5%
Seahawks by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 14, without the luck Cardinals by 12.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds blocked · 80% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Myers, 51 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 47 yards, Seahawks 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:50 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 7:21 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Luke Willson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +1.6 pts
Q1 6:51 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Caraun Reid), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.4 pts
Q1 3:51 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 6 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +1.9 pts
Q1 3:03 False Start on the Cardinals, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q2 11:55 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q2 7:14 False Start on the Seahawks (Marquise Blair), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 7:11 Illegal Blindside Block on the Cardinals, 15 yards +5% SEA +1.4 pts
Q2 2:39 False Start on the Seahawks (Marquise Blair), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 8:09 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q3 6:07 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks, 15 yards +2% ARI +1.8 pts
Q4 12:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 15 yards +4% SEA +1.8 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:58 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% ARI ARI: Punt
2 Q2 14:57 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% ARI SEA: Punt
3 Q2 11:55 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% ARI SEA: Punt
4 Q2 7:11 Illegal Blindside Block on the Cardinals, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% SEA SEA: Punt
5 Q2 1:52 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q3 1:20 Z. Gonzalez had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +11% SEA ARI: Punt
7 Q3 0:01 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% ARI SEA: Field goal
8 Q4 10:57 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% SEA SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duane Brown (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (SEA DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (SEA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rodney Gunter (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Bullard (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 99% · Seahawks 1%

Final margin
Cardinals by 14
Luck in points
1.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 13.0
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 93% · Seahawks 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Cardinals · Seahawks

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