luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Browns, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 31–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:48 left): Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 31
Cleveland Browns 15

December 22, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +12 Ravens about even · −12 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Browns win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 38 CLE 7
  2. 2 BAL 34 CLE 9
  3. 3 BAL 44 CLE 24
  4. 4 BAL 34 CLE 17
  5. 5 BAL 24 CLE 10
  6. 6 BAL 42 CLE 31
  7. 7 BAL 27 CLE 20
  8. 8 BAL 28 CLE 24
  9. 9 BAL 24 CLE 22
  10. 10 BAL 13 CLE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 88% of them, Browns 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+43.7%
Ravens by 9–1623.3%
Ravens by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Browns by 1–88.5%
Browns by 9–162.4%
Browns by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Browns: the final margin was Ravens by 16, without the luck Ravens by 21.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Tucker, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 7 for 50 yards, Browns 7 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:16 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +6% BAL +1.9 pts
Q1 7:12 Taunting on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 15 yards +3% BAL +1.2 pts
Q1 0:48 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play +20% CLE +7.5 pts
Q2 13:44 Encroachment on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 6 yards · pre-snap +5% CLE +1.7 pts
Q2 12:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 12 yards +7% CLE +2.9 pts
Q2 11:53 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 9 yards +1% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 8:20 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 8:14 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 4:20 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 5 yards +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Sheldon Richardson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.3 pts
Q4 13:53 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Sheldon Richardson), 2 yards 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 12:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards +2% CLE +1.7 pts
Q4 8:13 Face Mask on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 3 yards +3% CLE +3.4 pts
Q4 3:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (Sheldon Richardson), 15 yards +1% BAL +1.8 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 13:03 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% CLE CLE: Punt
3 Q1 7:16 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% CLE BAL: Turnover
4 Q1 5:34 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% BAL CLE: Punt
5 Q1 0:48 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 892 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 368 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:09 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% BAL CLE: Punt
8 Q3 14:10 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · Browns 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 16
Luck in points
5.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 21.1
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 88% · Browns 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Ravens · Browns

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