luckadjusted

Week 15 2019 · December 12, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Ravens, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Jets 42–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 90% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 21
Baltimore Ravens 42

December 12, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −17

Luck index +2 Ravens about even · −2 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 27 BAL 30
  2. 2 NYJ 20 BAL 27
  3. 3 NYJ 16 BAL 28
  4. 4 NYJ 19 BAL 34
  5. 5 NYJ 19 BAL 38
  6. 6 NYJ 17 BAL 39
  7. 7 NYJ 17 BAL 42
  8. 8 NYJ 6 BAL 34
  9. 9 NYJ 3 BAL 35
  10. 10 NYJ 9 BAL 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 2% of them, Ravens 98%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.4%
Jets by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Ravens by 1–83.9%
Ravens by 9–1611.2%
Ravens by 17+83.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +19.2 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 21, without the luck Ravens by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 49 yds blocked · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 8 for 94 yards, Ravens 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:28 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jets, 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% BAL +3.0 pts
Q2 11:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 43 yards +5% BAL +3.5 pts
Q2 10:57 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 10:06 Encroachment on the Jets, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q2 9:56 Encroachment on the Jets (Folorunso Fatukasi), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q2 9:43 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q3 1:26 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 1:04 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q4 14:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jordan Jenkins), 15 yards 0% BAL +2.1 pts
Q4 7:35 Face Mask on the Jets (Bennett Jackson), 15 yards 0% BAL +1.4 pts
Q4 7:35 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q4 5:49 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 5:32 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q4 5:26 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% NYJ +0.9 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:06 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:13 S. Ficken had a 49-yard field goal blockedKicks · 68% expected for him, 3 of 8 from 45+ before +5% BAL NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:28 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jets, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:32 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 43 yardsJudgment calls +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:00 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% BAL NYJ: Turnover
8 Q3 5:29 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Demaryius Thomas (NYJ WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jamal Adams (NYJ SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Arthur Maulet (NYJ CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Trumaine Johnson (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ NT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Griffin (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Winters (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 22% · Ravens 78%

Final margin
Ravens by 21
Luck in points
19.2 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 2% · Ravens 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Jets · Ravens

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