luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · final

Every upset of 2020, and which were deserved

88 upsets in 2020, 43 of them deserved. The biggest: the Jets beat the Rams 23–20 (Week 15) as 10% underdogs, and got lucky.

An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 93 of these 268 games should have gone to the underdog; 88 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (27 of 88).

#GameWhenBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
1 Jets 23, Rams 20 2020 Week 15 · Dec 20, 2020 10%21%Lucky
2 Bengals 27, Steelers 17 2020 Week 15 · Dec 21, 2020 14%84%Deserved
3 Raiders 40, Chiefs 32 2020 Week 5 · Oct 11, 2020 21%87%Deserved
4 Giants 17, Seahawks 12 2020 Week 13 · Dec 6, 2020 21%54%Coin flip
5 Eagles 25, 49ers 20 2020 Week 4 · Oct 4, 2020 26%13%Lucky
6 Dolphins 43, 49ers 17 2020 Week 5 · Oct 11, 2020 26%85%Deserved
7 Bengals 31, Titans 20 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 29%9%Lucky
8 Eagles 24, Saints 21 2020 Week 14 · Dec 13, 2020 29%31%Lucky
9 Bengals 37, Texans 31 2020 Week 16 · Dec 27, 2020 29%37%Lucky
10 Jaguars 27, Colts 20 2020 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2020 30%31%Lucky
11 Patriots 23, Ravens 17 2020 Week 10 · Nov 15, 2020 30%93%Deserved
12 Cardinals 24, 49ers 20 2020 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2020 30%26%Lucky
13 Broncos 18, Patriots 12 2020 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2020 30%51%Coin flip
14 Cowboys 31, Vikings 28 2020 Week 11 · Nov 22, 2020 30%56%Coin flip
15 Jets 23, Browns 16 2020 Week 16 · Dec 27, 2020 32%61%Deserved
16 Panthers 21, Chargers 16 2020 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2020 33%60%Deserved
17 Dolphins 34, Cardinals 31 2020 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2020 33%31%Lucky
18 Titans 30, Ravens 24 2020 Week 11 · Nov 22, 2020 33%75%Deserved
19 49ers 20, Cardinals 12 2020 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2020 33%95%Deserved
20 Washington 27, Eagles 17 2020 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2020 34%42%Coin flip
21 Vikings 28, Packers 22 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 34%70%Deserved
22 Washington 23, Steelers 17 2020 Week 13 · Dec 7, 2020 34%28%Lucky
23 49ers 23, Rams 20 2020 Week 12 · Nov 29, 2020 36%43%Coin flip
24 Browns 48, Steelers 37 2020 Wild Card · Jan 10, 2021 36%52%Coin flip
25 Lions 26, Cardinals 23 2020 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2020 37%30%Lucky
26 Giants 27, Eagles 17 2020 Week 10 · Nov 15, 2020 37%84%Deserved
27 Steelers 28, Ravens 24 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 38%37%Lucky
28 Rams 27, Buccaneers 24 2020 Week 11 · Nov 23, 2020 38%64%Deserved
29 Browns 41, Titans 35 2020 Week 13 · Dec 6, 2020 38%65%Deserved
30 Broncos 32, Panthers 27 2020 Week 14 · Dec 13, 2020 38%61%Deserved
31 Raiders 34, Saints 24 2020 Week 2 · Sep 21, 2020 38%19%Lucky
32 Broncos 20, Dolphins 13 2020 Week 11 · Nov 22, 2020 38%87%Deserved
33 Cowboys 41, 49ers 33 2020 Week 15 · Dec 20, 2020 38%18%Lucky
34 Bears 20, Buccaneers 19 2020 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2020 40%42%Coin flip
35 Cardinals 37, Seahawks 34 2020 Week 7 · Oct 25, 2020 40%14%Lucky
36 Dolphins 28, Rams 17 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 40%5%Lucky
37 Falcons 43, Raiders 6 2020 Week 12 · Nov 29, 2020 40%83%Deserved
38 Bills 56, Dolphins 26 2020 Week 17 · Jan 3, 2021 40%95%Deserved
39 Packers 37, Saints 30 2020 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2020 40%70%Deserved
40 Chiefs 34, Ravens 20 2020 Week 3 · Sep 28, 2020 40%83%Deserved
41 Browns 49, Cowboys 38 2020 Week 4 · Oct 4, 2020 40%40%Coin flip
42 Vikings 31, Texans 23 2020 Week 4 · Oct 4, 2020 40%88%Deserved
43 Falcons 40, Vikings 23 2020 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2020 40%10%Lucky
44 Chargers 30, Raiders 27 2020 Week 15 · Dec 17, 2020 40%32%Lucky
45 Dolphins 31, Jaguars 13 2020 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2020 41%65%Deserved
46 Panthers 31, Cardinals 21 2020 Week 4 · Oct 4, 2020 41%80%Deserved
47 Titans 42, Bills 16 2020 Week 5 · Oct 13, 2020 41%50%Coin flip
48 Buccaneers 38, Packers 10 2020 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2020 41%83%Deserved
49 49ers 33, Patriots 6 2020 Week 7 · Oct 25, 2020 41%83%Deserved
50 Broncos 31, Chargers 30 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 41%18%Lucky
51 Saints 38, Buccaneers 3 2020 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2020 41%70%Deserved
52 Giants 23, Washington 20 2020 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2020 41%30%Lucky
53 Bills 44, Seahawks 34 2020 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2020 41%74%Deserved
54 Panthers 20, Lions 0 2020 Week 11 · Nov 22, 2020 41%87%Deserved
55 Titans 45, Colts 26 2020 Week 12 · Nov 29, 2020 41%87%Deserved
56 Lions 34, Bears 30 2020 Week 13 · Dec 6, 2020 41%88%Deserved
57 Washington 23, 49ers 15 2020 Week 14 · Dec 13, 2020 41%30%Lucky
58 Cowboys 37, Eagles 17 2020 Week 16 · Dec 27, 2020 41%86%Deserved
59 Rams 30, Seahawks 20 2020 Wild Card · Jan 9, 2021 41%63%Deserved
60 Buccaneers 31, Packers 26 2020 NFC Championship · Jan 24, 2021 41%72%Deserved
61 Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 9 2020 Super Bowl · Feb 7, 2021 41%83%Deserved
62 Bears 27, Lions 23 2020 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2020 43%26%Lucky
63 Bears 30, Falcons 26 2020 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2020 43%18%Lucky
64 Panthers 23, Falcons 16 2020 Week 5 · Oct 11, 2020 43%95%Deserved
65 Texans 27, Patriots 20 2020 Week 11 · Nov 22, 2020 43%56%Coin flip
66 Washington 41, Cowboys 16 2020 Week 12 · Nov 26, 2020 43%68%Deserved
67 Patriots 45, Chargers 0 2020 Week 13 · Dec 6, 2020 43%53%Coin flip
68 Bears 33, Vikings 27 2020 Week 15 · Dec 20, 2020 43%43%Coin flip
69 Buccaneers 30, Saints 20 2020 Divisional round · Jan 17, 2021 43%56%Coin flip
70 49ers 24, Rams 16 2020 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2020 44%55%Coin flip
71 Rams 37, Eagles 19 2020 Week 2 · Sep 20, 2020 44%90%Deserved
72 Bears 23, Panthers 16 2020 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2020 44%21%Lucky
73 Falcons 25, Panthers 17 2020 Week 8 · Oct 29, 2020 46%37%Lucky
74 Bills 34, 49ers 24 2020 Week 13 · Dec 7, 2020 46%50%Coin flip
75 Dolphins 22, Patriots 12 2020 Week 15 · Dec 20, 2020 46%76%Deserved
76 Giants 23, Cowboys 19 2020 Week 17 · Jan 3, 2021 46%52%Coin flip
77 Washington 25, Cowboys 3 2020 Week 7 · Oct 25, 2020 47%91%Deserved
78 Patriots 20, Cardinals 17 2020 Week 12 · Nov 29, 2020 47%35%Lucky
79 Bears 36, Texans 7 2020 Week 14 · Dec 13, 2020 47%88%Deserved
80 Steelers 28, Colts 24 2020 Week 16 · Dec 27, 2020 47%53%Coin flip
81 Packers 43, Vikings 34 2020 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2020 47%31%Lucky
82 Seahawks 38, Falcons 25 2020 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2020 47%34%Lucky
83 Broncos 37, Jets 28 2020 Week 4 · Oct 1, 2020 47%88%Deserved
84 Cardinals 38, Cowboys 10 2020 Week 6 · Oct 19, 2020 47%85%Deserved
85 Lions 23, Falcons 22 2020 Week 7 · Oct 25, 2020 47%79%Deserved
86 Steelers 27, Titans 24 2020 Week 7 · Oct 25, 2020 47%63%Deserved
87 Raiders 16, Browns 6 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 47%82%Deserved
88 Ravens 24, Colts 10 2020 Week 9 · Nov 8, 2020 47%46%Coin flip

Upsets week by week

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2019

The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2020 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?