luckadjusted

Wild Card 2020 · January 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Seahawks, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Seahawks 30–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:46 left): Return touchdown by the Rams, worth 25 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 30
Seattle Seahawks 20

January 9, 2021 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +37 Rams lucky · −37 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 LA 44 SEA 17
  2. 2 LA 27 SEA 10
  3. 3 LA 26 SEA 13
  4. 4 LA 21 SEA 13
  5. 5 LA 36 SEA 31
  6. 6 LA 22 SEA 20
  7. 7 LA 14 SEA 16
  8. 8 LA 3 SEA 9
  9. 9 LA 25 SEA 37
  10. 10 LA 16 SEA 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 63% of them, Seahawks 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+20.6%
Rams by 9–1618.4%
Rams by 1–823.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Seahawks by 1–816.4%
Seahawks by 9–1611.5%
Seahawks by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 10, without the luck Rams by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Myers, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Gay, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Myers, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • M. Gay, 36 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 2 for 15 yards, Seahawks 9 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:33 Offensive Holding on the Rams (David Long), 10 yards +2% SEA +1.0 pts
Q1 3:52 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +3% LA +1.4 pts
Q1 3:28 False Start on the Seahawks (Will Dissly), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts
Q2 4:14 False Start on the Seahawks (Tyler Lockett), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.6 pts
Q2 2:01 Encroachment on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.8 pts
Q3 9:51 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 3:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards +3% LA +0.7 pts
Q3 3:09 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LA +2.1 pts
Q3 1:50 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Seahawks (Damarious Randall), 5 yards +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 11:33 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q4 9:32 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.8 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:35 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% SEA LA: Field goal
2 Q2 6:46 Return touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +25% LA LA: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 2:55 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q3 14:00 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% LA SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 13:03 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% SEA LA: Punt
6 Q3 10:04 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% LA SEA: Punt
7 Q3 3:09 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% LA LA: Field goal
8 Q4 11:37 M. Gay made 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +5% SEA LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Micah Kiser (LA ILB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 91% · Seahawks 9%

Final margin
Rams by 10
Luck in points
2.0 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 63% · Seahawks 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Rams · Seahawks

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