luckadjusted

Wild Card 2020 · January 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Bills, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Colts 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:37 left): Defensive Offside on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 24
Buffalo Bills 27

January 9, 2021 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +57 Bills lucky · −57 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 6, Bills win 4.

  1. 1 IND 36 BUF 13
  2. 2 IND 22 BUF 6
  3. 3 IND 38 BUF 27
  4. 4 IND 34 BUF 26
  5. 5 IND 20 BUF 14
  6. 6 IND 34 BUF 31
  7. 7 IND 21 BUF 23
  8. 8 IND 24 BUF 28
  9. 9 IND 21 BUF 31
  10. 10 IND 34 BUF 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 57% of them, Bills 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+13.1%
Colts by 9–1617.2%
Colts by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation3.2%
Bills by 1–819.7%
Bills by 9–1612.9%
Bills by 17+7.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Colts by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • T. Bass, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 33 yds missed · 93% expected
  • T. Bass, 54 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 2 for 10 yards, Bills 2 for 7 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:19 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 8:07 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Jaquan Johnson), 6 yards +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +21% BUF +4.8 pts
Q4 11:32 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Quinton Jefferson), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% BUF 0.0 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:29 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q2 2:00 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +7% BUF IND: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 1:53 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% BUF IND: End of half
4 Q2 0:37 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 197 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +21% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:51 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% IND BUF: Field goal
6 Q4 0:55 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% BUF IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:50 The Colts converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +18% IND IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:04 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Castonzo (IND T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 53% · Bills 47%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
4.7 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 57% · Bills 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Colts · Bills

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